The Avalanche dominated play but left empty-handed. Anaheim won 2-1 in a shootout despite generating only 2.29 expected goals to Colorado's 5.15—a 31-69 split that should have ended differently.

The Avalanche controlled the game entirely. They fired 41 shots on goal against 16, owned 72% of shot attempts, and generated 6 high-danger chances to the Ducks' 2. By every measure of possession and opportunity, this was Colorado's game to lose.

L. Dostal had other plans. The Anaheim goalie stopped 40 of 41 shots while outperforming his expected save total by 4.15 goals. He was immaculate on high-danger situations—6 for 6 on HD chances. That performance turned a loss into a win.

Colorado's collapse came in execution. The Avalanche managed zero high-danger goals despite six chances. They created five rebound opportunities—a sign of effective net-front pressure—and converted none of them. Colorado underperformed their xG by 4.2 goals. S. Wedgewood was solid enough (15 of 16, +1.29 above expected), but his support evaporated.

C. Gauthier ended it in the shootout with a wrist shot from the high slot that beat Wedgewood when it counted most.

The Ducks executed a heist of a shootout win built almost entirely on goaltending. Colorado will watch the tape and wonder how a night of control produced zero points. The margin between dominant and defeated, in this sport, often lives between the pipes.

The model projects a 2.5–3.0 goal game with the Avalanche at 57% win probability. The reasoning is straightforward: Colorado controls the underlying play. The Avalanche run 57.0% 5v5 expected goals and 57.0% Corsi against Anaheim's 52.0% in both metrics. That gap is durable.

Form reinforces the edge. The Avalanche are 6-3-1 in their last 10. The Ducks carry a -9 goal differential over the same span. But PDO regression lurks. Colorado sits at 1.021 — running hot and due for some cooling. Anaheim is at 0.981 — running cold and due for positive regression. Neither is guaranteed to shift tonight, but the risk is real.

L. Dostal is on a back-to-back, which could mean a backup start or a tired starter in net.

Beckett Sennecke leads Anaheim's offensive load with 20 goals and 19 assists. He generates 1.03 expected goals per 60 minutes with 8 high-danger chances and a 13.5% shooting percentage. Cutter Gauthier (25G, 16A) matches the threat volume at 0.99 xG/60 and shoots hotter at 12.9%.

On Colorado's side, Artturi Lehkonen (18G, 22A) generates 1.11 xG/60 with 6 high-danger goals and a 14.9% shot rate. Ross Colton follows at 1.10 xG/60 across 7 goals and 15 assists, though his 4.9% shooting rate suggests room for positive regression.

The territorial imbalance compounds Colorado's advantage. The Avalanche drive play at 57.0% Corsi — they'll camp in Anaheim's end for long stretches. The Ducks will need to survive possession and hope that PDO regression works in their favor. It's the model's simplest lean: Colorado controls the game; Anaheim has to catch a break to win it.