The Ducks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.29–5.15 and won anyway.
The Avalanche dominated play but left empty-handed. Anaheim won 2-1 in a shootout despite generating only 2.29 expected goals to Colorado's 5.15—a 31-69 split that should have ended differently.
The Avalanche controlled the game entirely. They fired 41 shots on goal against 16, owned 72% of shot attempts, and generated 6 high-danger chances to the Ducks' 2. By every measure of possession and opportunity, this was Colorado's game to lose.
L. Dostal had other plans. The Anaheim goalie stopped 40 of 41 shots while outperforming his expected save total by 4.15 goals. He was immaculate on high-danger situations—6 for 6 on HD chances. That performance turned a loss into a win.
Colorado's collapse came in execution. The Avalanche managed zero high-danger goals despite six chances. They created five rebound opportunities—a sign of effective net-front pressure—and converted none of them. Colorado underperformed their xG by 4.2 goals. S. Wedgewood was solid enough (15 of 16, +1.29 above expected), but his support evaporated.
C. Gauthier ended it in the shootout with a wrist shot from the high slot that beat Wedgewood when it counted most.
The Ducks executed a heist of a shootout win built almost entirely on goaltending. Colorado will watch the tape and wonder how a night of control produced zero points. The margin between dominant and defeated, in this sport, often lives between the pipes.
