The Red Wings stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.38–4.54 and won anyway.
Detroit stole this. Toronto controlled 57% of expected goals yet lost 2-1 in overtime—a heist that rested almost entirely on J. Gibson's shoulders.
The Maple Leafs dominated shot quality. They generated 0.074 xG per shot compared to Detroit's 0.044, creating 10 high-danger chances to the Red Wings' 5. Yet Toronto managed just one goal while Detroit capitalized on its opportunities more efficiently, including 2 goals on 31 rush chances.
The explanation lies in variance. J. Gibson posted a 0.968 SV%, stopping 3.54 goals above expected. J. Woll saved 1.38 goals above expected with a 0.951 SV%—strong, but insufficient when his team was inefficient. Toronto underperformed its xG by 3.54 goals; Detroit underperformed by just 1.38. That gap decided the game.
Gibson faced 10 high-danger chances and stopped 9, an elite performance on Detroit's most vulnerable possessions. The Red Wings took 41 shots to Toronto's 31, with inferior shot quality but superior finishing. Dylan Larkin's goal from the slot at 03:08 of overtime came on one of Detroit's five high-danger chances. Toronto's 10 high-danger opportunities yielded just one goal for the night.
Toronto crashed the net and generated rebound opportunities (5 attempts, 1 converted), yet one goal proved insufficient. Detroit created 4 rebound chances with no conversions, relying on Gibson's brilliance and sharper execution on its limited chances.
