Motion-blurred skater in a gold and black sweater

Breakdown · VGK at BOS

Bruins steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

FinalThu, Jan 22

VGKVegas Golden Knights3 BOSBoston Bruins4

The verdict · stolen

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 5.44–3.37 and won anyway.

VGK 3 · BOS 4

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:03 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Bruins won 4-3 in a game that xG says they had no business winning. Vegas controlled play decisively, with 62% of expected goals (5.44 to Boston's 3.37). The Bruins were the worse team on ice; they just had a goaltender playing out of his mind.

J. Korpisalo stopped 30 of 33 shots, bailing out Boston with 2.44 goals of overperformance. Across the ice, A. Schmid faced fewer high-danger chances—the Golden Knights hoarded 11 to Boston's 8—but still allowed the result to slip away, finishing -0.63 against his xG.

The through-line was goaltending, not mechanics. Vegas generated higher-quality looks (0.080 xG per shot versus Boston's 0.058). That precision didn't translate to the scoresheet. The Bruins, meanwhile, were lethal in transition: three goals on 24 rush chances to Vegas's two on 30. Boston also found success in low-danger areas, converting two goals the opposing goalie should have had.

Pavel Dorofeyev's snap shot from a sharp angle (P3, 17:25) stands as the turning point, emblematic of the push Vegas couldn't complete despite the statistical edge.

The Golden Knights underperformed their xG by 2.44 goals. Boston escaped with a heist, winning despite 47% of shot attempts and 38% of expected goals. That's not sustainable, and Vegas's analytics will sting afterward.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 22

VGK

BOS

Bruins steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Chances 5.4 – 3.4Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

VGK

5.44

BOS

3.37

62% of the chances38%

The board read VGK 3, BOS 4. The chances read VGK 5.4, BOS 3.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BOS

+0.6

goals above expected

BOS3.37 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

VGK5.44 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Golden Knights left 2.4 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 09:12BOSC. McAvoyPP0–1
P1 09:42BOSE. LindholmPP0–2
P1 10:06BOST. Jeannot0–3
P2 07:25BOSD. Pastrnak0–4
P3 00:31VGKJ. Eichel1–4
P3 03:01VGKT. HertlPP2–4
P3 17:25VGKP. DorofeyevPP3–4

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

VGK

46 shots

Final

88 shots

BOS

42 shots

VGK BOS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

VGKBOS

2 / 11

3.15 xG

High danger

1 / 8

1.83 xG

1 / 16

1.83 xG

Medium

1 / 8

0.87 xG

0 / 41

0.45 xG

Low

2 / 42

0.67 xG

High-danger looks: VGK 2 of 11, BOS 1 of 8.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Korpisalo

+2.4

BOS · 30/33

A. Schmid

−0.6

VGK · 25/29

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Bruins steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 4–16

09:12BOSC. McAvoypower play(D. Pastrnak, M. Geekie)0–1
09:42BOSE. Lindholmpower play(D. Pastrnak, M. Geekie)0–2
10:06BOST. Jeannot(S. Kuraly)0–3

2ndshots 8–8

07:25BOSD. Pastrnak(N. Zadorov, E. Lindholm)0–4

3rdshots 21–5

00:31VGKJ. Eichel(N. Hanifin, K. Korczak)1–4
03:01VGKT. Hertlpower play(M. Stone, J. Eichel)2–4
17:25VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(S. Theodore, M. Marner)3–4

score reads VGK–BOS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.37

BOS chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.6

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.025

BOS puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

46.0%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.44Expected goals3.37

VGK 62% of the chance quality

33Shots on goal29

11High-danger chances8

68All attempts (Corsi)58

Adjusted for score: VGK 60% · BOS 40%

Faceoffs · BOS won29%off44%neu55%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

VGK2 / 11 · 3.15 xG

BOS1 / 8 · 1.83 xG

Medium dangermid-range

VGK1 / 16 · 1.83 xG

BOS1 / 8 · 0.87 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

VGK0 / 41 · 0.45 xG

BOS2 / 42 · 0.67 xG

BOS went 2-for-42 from low danger on 0.67 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

VGK

3 G · 5.44 xG · -2.4

BOS

4 G · 3.37 xG · +0.6

0123456

VGK finished -2.4 against expected, BOS +0.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

VGK

WRIST1/30

SNAP2/5

SLAP0/2

BACKHAND0/2

TIP IN0/5

WRAP AROUND0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/22

BOS

WRIST2/14

SNAP1/10

SLAP1/12

BACKHAND0/4

TIP IN0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/16

VGK

BOS

Off the rush

2 G on 30

3.00 xG

3 G on 24

1.93 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 6

1.87 xG

0 G on 8

1.27 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 1-for-30, BOS 2-for-14. BOS scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

A. Schmid

VGK · 25/29 · .862

-0.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/81.8+0.8

Medium1/80.9-0.1

Low2/420.7-1.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Korpisalo

BOS · 30/33 · .909

+2.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/113.1+1.1

Medium1/161.8+0.8

Low0/410.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

88 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

VGK

46 shots

Final

88 shots

BOS

42 shots

VGK BOS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

D. Pastrnak

#88 · R · BOS

1 G · 2 A · 6 SOG · 17:32 on ice

J. Eichel

#9 · C · VGK

1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 22:38 on ice · +2

E. Lindholm

#28 · C · BOS

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 19:44 on ice · -1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Jan 22

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas edges Boston in underlying play—but barely. The model projects 2.6-2.4 Golden Knights with 54% win probability, about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The Golden Knights own the territorial game. They generate 54.0% expected goals at 5v5 and drive 52.0% of shot attempts. Boston's puck luck runs hotter: their 1.023 PDO means they're overperforming their chances, while Vegas' 0.983 PDO signals regression incoming—exactly the variance that flips close games.

J. Swayman's workload affects Boston's ceiling. On a back-to-back, he may start fresh or give way to a backup.

Vegas' offense hinges on Brandon Saad and Tomas Hertl. Saad (0.91 xG/60, 3G 6A, 1 HD goal, 4.1% shooting) generates volume without consistent finishing. Hertl (0.88 xG/60, 5G 17A, 1 HD goal, 4.3% shooting) shoots at only 4.3%, a low rate that signals conversion upside. Boston counters with Viktor Arvidsson (1.04 xG/60, 18G 24A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting)—finishing at 13.0%, he's the Bruins' lifeline. Tanner Jeannot (0.75 xG/60, 6G 14A, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shooting) outperforms his underlying metrics.

Rasmus Andersson is Vegas' defensive weak link; Elias Lindholm is Boston's. Both teams fail to generate hard-contact or rebound goals—neither tolerates sloppy transitions.

That 54% win probability means luck decides it.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 54%

54%

VGK

Model favorite

54%

46%

VGK50BOS

VGK by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 2.6–2.4 BOS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK← edge

edge →BOS

54.0%47.0%

52.0%49.0%

2.522.39

2.112.67

2.122.22

2.101.82

0.9831.023

VGK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.023) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

VGK

7-2-1

+14 GD · 2d rest

BOS

8-2-0

+18 GD · 1d rest

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.023

BOS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
J. Swayman is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

VGK

Expected in goal

A. Hill

2 days rest.882 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

BOS

Expected in goal

J. Swayman

back-to-back.824 last start

Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

BOS

Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A

1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Tanner Jeannot6G 14A

0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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