The Sabres won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Sabres beat the Canadiens 4-2, but expected goals finished 3.28–3.55—nearly even. The real gap: Montreal controlled play and registered 67% of shot attempts (34 on goal to Buffalo's 17), yet still lost. This is the margin between volume and danger.
U. Luukkonen stopped 32 of 34 shots for a 0.941 save percentage, outperforming expected performance by 1.28 goals. S. Montembeault made 13 of 16 saves at 0.812, a modest 0.55 above expected, but the quality gap was too wide to bridge.
Buffalo's efficiency told the story. They generated 0.081 expected goals per shot compared to Montreal's 0.050—a decisive difference in shot quality. In the high-danger area, Buffalo converted 3 of 7 chances (43%), where it matters most. The Canadiens created 3 rebound opportunities but converted only 1, despite crashing the net effectively.
The rush game sealed it. Buffalo scored 2 goals on 20 rush opportunities—a ratio Montreal couldn't match. Peyton Krebs's snap shot from the wing in the third period exemplified this efficiency: Buffalo capitalized on transition where Montreal merely chased.
Montreal dominated possession but never found dangerous looks. They underperformed expected goals by 1.28, the penalty for quantity without precision. N. Suzuki (1G, 1A in 20:14) and M. Matheson (1A in 23:53) worked hard, yet the Canadiens' possession advantage converted into just two goals—a reminder that shot attempts don't decide games.