Chicago stole this game. Carolina owned 56% of expected goals—4.61 to 3.61—and still lost in a shootout. The Hurricanes controlled play but couldn't convert; the Blackhawks got the result anyway.

The disparity traced to execution. Carolina held 58% of shot attempts (31 to 22) and generated 7 high-danger chances to Chicago's 7. But Chicago's looks were sharper: 0.095 xG per shot versus 0.065. Efficiency, not volume, won this one.

S. Knight, Chicago's goaltender, was the difference. He saved 1.61 goals above expected on 28 saves, working to a 0.903 save percentage when the numbers said he should concede more. F. Andersen stopped 0.61 goals above expected for Carolina but it wasn't enough; the Hurricanes' inability to convert on 3 rebounding opportunities cost them in the margins.

Oliver Moore's snap shot from the slot in the shootout ended it.

Carolina converted 3 times on 36 rush chances while Chicago converted 2 on 19. Both teams had opportunities off the rush, but the game's margin was Chicago's efficiency in other areas.

Three Stars

• I. Mikheyev (CHI)—1G, 1A in 18:35
• J. Slavin (CAR)—1A in 23:32
• C. Murphy (CHI)—1G in 22:17

The model projects a CHI 2.2 - 3.1 CAR game with the Hurricanes at 64% win probability. Carolina controls the underlying play.

Carolina dominates the expected goals metric: 56.0% 5v5 xG share compared to Chicago's 42.0%. That advantage extends across the possession game—the Hurricanes drive 60.0% Corsi, which tilts territorial control decisively in their direction.

Here's the real edge: Carolina is running cold with a 0.984 PDO, well below the expected baseline. That regresses upward. Chicago sits at 0.996 PDO, which means their luck has already turned. The PDO gap favors the Hurricanes.

Tyler Bertuzzi carries Chicago's offense: 0.85 xG/60 with 20 goals and 15 assists, though his 18.0% shooting rate suggests some regression ahead. Connor Bedard backs him up at 0.82 xG/60, with 17 goals and 27 assists at 11.8% efficiency.

Carolina counters with Jackson Blake, who drives at 1.06 xG/60—the highest rate in the matchup—with 14 goals and 19 assists on 10.9% shooting. Seth Jarvis provides secondary firepower: 0.98 xG/60, 17 goals and 12 assists at 11.9%.

The defensive mismatch favors Carolina. Anton Frondell represents Chicago's weak link; Blake will target him. Charles Alexis Legault becomes the vulnerability for Carolina, exposed to Bertuzzi and Bedard.

The PDO regression math favors the Hurricanes.