The Blue Jackets stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.53–1.48 and won anyway.
Columbus stole this one. The Blue Jackets won 1-0 while surrendering a 70-30 expected-goals deficit—a margin so lopsided it borders on heist territory.
The culprit was goaltending and finishing. C. DeSmith's work in Dallas stopped 21 of 22, but the Stars' execution disintegrated when it mattered. They generated the higher-quality looks (0.058 xG per shot versus Columbus's 0.032) yet managed just 0 goals on 5 high-danger chances. That conversion rate won't persist.
J. Greaves was the antidote. The Blue Jackets goalie turned in a perfect night—28 saves, 1.000 SV%—stopping 3.53 goals above expected on shots where Dallas should have scored. The Stars threw everything at him, including 6 rebound chances, but Greaves would not budge.
Columbus manufactured almost nothing. It held 44% of shot attempts (22–28) but the chances weren't dangerous ones. What it did produce mattered: Zach Werenski's snap shot from the wing at 08:48 of the first period broke through and held up as the game-winner. D. Severson and I. Lundestrom assisted on a five-on-five goal sequence that proved just enough.
The Stars' inability to cash in their quality looks—particularly their dominance in high-danger situations—defined the outcome. They were the better team by nearly every process metric and still left with nothing.
