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Motion-blurred skater in a Nashville Predators sweater
← Thu, Jan 22 · the slate
Breakdown · OTT at NSH

Predators hold off the Senators

FinalThu, Jan 22
OTTOttawa Senators3NSHNashville Predators5
The verdict · earned

The Predators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

OTT 3 · NSH 5
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:07 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Nashville won 5-3, but high-danger chances were split 5-5—the Predators outfinished Ottawa in the scoring areas. Expected goals favored Nashville, 56% to 44% (4.27–3.37), and shot attempts nearly tied at 27-26. The real story was efficiency: Nashville converted 60% of its high-danger chances while Ottawa managed 40%.

At even strength, the Predators controlled play and generated more dangerous opportunities. That advantage proved decisive in a contest tighter than the scoreline suggests.

Nashville was lethal off the rush, scoring four goals on 27 attempts to Ottawa's two on 28. On the power play, the Predators were dominant: two goals on seven attempts (0.64 xG). Special teams widened the gap.

J. Saros turned aside 23 of 26 shots (0.885 SV%), while J. Reimer stopped 22 of 26 (0.846 SV%). Both played well; Nashville's skaters simply finished their chances.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 22
OTT
3
NSH
5

Predators hold off the Senators

Chances 3.4 – 4.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Predators earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
OTT
3.37
NSH
4.27
44% of the chances56%

The board read OTT 3, NSH 5. The chances read OTT 3.4, NSH 4.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NSH
+0.7
goals above expected
NSH4.27 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
OTT3.37 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:03OTTS. Halliday1–0
  2. P1 14:19OTTR. Greig2–0
  3. P2 10:46OTTB. Tkachuk3–0
  4. P2 18:34NSHS. StamkosPP3–1
  5. P3 08:19NSHJ. Marchessault3–2
  6. P3 10:07NSHS. StamkosPP3–3
  7. P3 18:47NSHS. Stamkos3–4
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
OTT
39 shots
3
Final
82 shots
NSH
43 shots
5
OTT attackNSH attack
OTT NSH Goal
39
shots · 3 in
43
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
OTTNSH
2 / 5
1.15 xG
High danger
3 / 5
1.86 xG
1 / 16
1.71 xG
Medium
2 / 17
1.89 xG
0 / 28
0.50 xG
Low
0 / 33
0.51 xG

The Predators buried 3 of 5 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
J. Saros
+0.4
NSH · 23/26
B
J. Reimer
+0.3
OTT · 22/26
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Predators hold off the Senators

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 11–8
  1. 06:03OTTS. Halliday(L. Eller, N. Cousins)1–0
  2. 14:19OTTR. Greig(M. Amadio, J. Sanderson)2–0
2ndshots 10–10
  1. 10:46OTTB. Tkachuk(D. Cozens, A. Zub)3–0
  2. 18:34NSHS. Stamkospower play(L. Evangelista, F. Forsberg)3–1
3rdshots 5–9
  1. 08:19NSHJ. Marchessault(M. Bunting, L. Evangelista)3–2
  2. 10:07NSHS. Stamkospower play(R. O'Reilly, R. Josi)3–3
  3. 18:47NSHS. Stamkos(R. O'Reilly, N. Blankenburg)3–4
  4. 19:33NSHC. Smithempty net(E. Haula, R. O'Reilly)3–5

score reads OTT–NSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.27
NSH chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.7
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.030
NSH puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
52.9%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.37Expected goals4.27
NSH 56% of the chance quality
26Shots on goal27
5High-danger chances5
49All attempts (Corsi)55
Adjusted for score: OTT 42% · NSH 58%
Faceoffs · NSH won9%off39%neu29%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
OTT2 / 5 · 1.15 xG
NSH3 / 5 · 1.86 xG
Medium dangermid-range
OTT1 / 16 · 1.71 xG
NSH2 / 17 · 1.89 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
OTT0 / 28 · 0.50 xG
NSH0 / 33 · 0.51 xG

NSH went 3-for-5 from high danger on 1.86 expected goals — 1.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
OTT
3 G · 3.37 xG · -0.4
NSH
5 G · 4.27 xG · +0.7
0123456

OTT finished -0.4 against expected, NSH +0.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
OTT
WRIST1/14
SLAP0/8
SNAP0/6
BACKHAND1/4
TIP IN1/3
DEFLECTED0/3
BAT0/0
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/10
NSH
WRIST2/15
SLAP1/10
SNAP1/4
BACKHAND0/6
TIP IN0/5
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT1/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/12
OTT
NSH
Off the rush
2 G on 28
2.55 xG
4 G on 27
2.64 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 4
0.47 xG
0 G on 3
0.46 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: OTT went 1-for-14, NSH 2-for-15. NSH scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Reimer
OTT · 22/26 · .846
+0.3
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/51.9-1.1
Medium2/171.9-0.1
Low0/330.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Saros
NSH · 23/26 · .885
+0.4
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/51.1-0.8
Medium1/161.7+0.7
Low0/280.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

82 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
OTT
39 shots
3
Final
82 shots
NSH
43 shots
5
OTT attackNSH attack
OTT NSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — OTT left, NSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
R. O'Reilly
#90 · C · NSH
0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 22:42 on ice · +1
S. Stamkos
#91 · C · NSH
3 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 18:47 on ice · -1
L. Evangelista
#77 · R · NSH
0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 13:35 on ice
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Jan 22
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The model projects a OTT 2.6 - 2.4 NSH game with the Senators at 53% win probability.

The Predators are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10. The Senators own the underlying play by a comfortable margin. They're generating 56.0% of 5v5 expected goals while limiting Nashville to 49.0%, and controlling territory at 53.0% Corsi% versus 50.0%. These aren't rounding errors—they suggest Nashville will chase the puck all night.

Save percentages and shooting accuracy are nearly identical between the teams, evidenced by PDO figures of 0.993 for Ottawa and 0.992 for Nashville. Luck won't decide this.

The wrinkle is goaltending. Both J. Annunen and J. Reimer are on back-to-backs. Expect either a backup in net or a weary starter—whichever side deploys fresh goaltending holds an advantage.

Players to Watch

OTT

  • Brady Tkachuk — 1.19 xG/60, 11G 20A, 2 HD goals, 7.5% shooting
  • Dylan Cozens — 1.00 xG/60, 13G 15A, 1 HD goals, 9.5% shooting

NSH

  • Zachary L'Heureux — 0.85 xG/60, 4G 0A, 1 HD goals, 16.0% shooting
  • Filip Forsberg — 0.80 xG/60, 23G 17A, 4 HD goals, 13.6% shooting

Tkachuk and Cozens carry Ottawa's offensive load. Tkachuk's 7.5% shooting rate sits well below league average, which means regression is building—if he finishes at even 10%, that's three more goals over the season. Cozens has already converted at 9.5%, a rate that typically sticks. Forsberg has weaponized 0.80 xG/60 into 23 goals through elite high-danger finishing at 13.6%—his efficiency is real, not a mirage. L'Heureux occupies the opposite end: 4 goals on similar volume, shooting at 16.0%, so either a breakout or a regression waits in the data.

Nick Jensen is Ottawa's defensive liability. Jonathan Marchessault serves the same purpose for Nashville. Both are exploitable targets for sustained pressure.

The model's verdict holds: a coin flip with a 53% lean toward Ottawa, contingent on which team gets fresh goaltending and imposes its territorial will.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

OTT 53%
53%
OTT
Model favorite
53%
47%
OTT50NSH

OTT by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score OTT 2.6–2.4 NSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →NSH
56.0%49.0%
53.0%50.0%
2.662.48
2.122.58
2.181.84
1.992.21
0.9930.992

OTT holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.992) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
OTT
4-4-2
-3 GD · 1d rest
NSH
5-5-0
-9 GD · 1d rest
0.993
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.992
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • J. Annunen is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • J. Reimer is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Predators are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
OTT
Expected in goal
J. Reimer
back-to-back.955 last start
Backup Linus Ullmark · -12.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NSH
Expected in goal
J. Annunen
back-to-back1.000 last start
Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT
Brady Tkachuk11G 20A
1.19 xG/60 · 2 HD · 7.5% sh
Dylan Cozens13G 15A
1.00 xG/60 · 1 HD · 9.5% sh
NSH
Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
Filip Forsberg23G 17A
0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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