The Panthers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.32–2.55 and won anyway.
Winnipeg generated the better game — expected goals favored the Jets, 2.55–2.32 — yet lost 2–1. That gap isn't statistical noise. It's the kind of variance that turns underlying dominance into an empty scoreboard.
The Jets commanded the quality chances, holding a 3–2 edge in high-danger opportunities. Shot attempts were near-even (18–20 for Florida), but Winnipeg's expected-goal output suggested they should have won regulation. They underperformed their xG by 1.55 goals instead — excellence in chance creation, failure in finish.
D. Tarasov stopped them. The Panthers goaltender posted 1.55 goals above expected, converting a winnable game into a Florida escape. C. Hellebuyck matched him with a 0.950 save percentage and +1.32 against expected, proving both goalies played the kind of hockey that makes the scoreboard lie.
The shootout ended the pretense. Sam Reinhart's conversion was the kind of moment underlying metrics never predict — but one that separates a close game into a Panthers win. Winnipeg's loss wasn't being outplayed; it was squandering the chances they earned.
Dominance without execution still loses.
