The Sharks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Sharks beat the Rangers 3–1. The underlying numbers agreed — they dominated 61% of 5-on-5 expected goals (4.98–3.13) and outlasted the Rangers in high-danger chances 10–4. Yet both goalies massively overperformed, meaning the Sharks' dominance was even starker than the final score suggested.
San Jose controlled the shot distribution (52% of attempts, 32–29 on goal) and generated far more dangerous looks. The Sharks produced 0.082 xG per shot; the Rangers managed 0.047—quality over quantity.
Sam Carrick's wrist shot from the doorstep at 12:50 of the first period was the turning point. A. Nedeljkovic finished with 28 saves on 29 shots (0.966 SV%, +2.13 vs expected), the night's best performance. S. Martin stopped 29 of 32 (0.906 SV%, +1.98 vs expected) and was particularly sharp on high-danger chances, stopping 9 of 10. Both overperformed their models, but Nedeljkovic's edge was wider.
The Sharks' rush game was lethal: 3 goals on 31 rush chances. San Jose created 8 rebound chances but converted zero; the Rangers generated 5 and buried one. Despite controlling the game, the Sharks left goals on the table; the Rangers just left more.
The expected goals told the true story: Sharks 4.98, Rangers 3.13. The Sharks were better, and the scoreboard reflected it—even if both teams wasted chances along the way.
