The Ducks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Anaheim's 4-2 win was one of the rare cases where the box score and the underlying numbers align completely. The Ducks controlled 66% of expected goals at 5v5 (3.92–2.00), and the scoreline reflected it.
Anaheim converted 2 of 4 high-danger chances; Seattle had just one. That edge in the danger zone—where the scoring happens—proved decisive.
Quantity reinforced quality. Anaheim out-shot Seattle 31–22 at 5v5, and when they did shoot, they shot better—0.062 expected goals per shot versus 0.040. Seattle's rush attack offered a bright spot: the Kraken scored 2 goals on 21 rush attempts. Anaheim was equally lethal off the rush, scoring 2 on 27 chances, neutralizing what could have been the visitors' narrative.
Pavel Mintyukov's wrist shot from the slot in the third period (18:48) was the turning point. By then, the underlying dominance was already on display.
In goal, L. Dostal stopped 20 of 22 for Anaheim (0.909 SV%), while P. Grubauer made 27 saves for Seattle at 0.900 SV%, performing +0.92 against expected. Grubauer played well above the odds; it just wasn't enough.
Anaheim's net-crash strategy paid off—five rebound opportunities generated, with one converted. That's basic but effective: get second chances when the first look doesn't go in.
The Ducks didn't win despite the metrics. They won because of them.