Motion-blurred skater in a Buffalo Sabres sweater

Breakdown · BUF at NYI

Sabres shut out the Islanders, 5-0

FinalSat, Jan 24

BUFBuffalo Sabres5 NYINew York Islanders0

The verdict · stolen

The Sabres stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.84–3.14 and won anyway.

BUF 5 · NYI 0

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:24 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Buffalo's 5-0 win contradicted what the underlying metrics suggested. The Sabres won despite generating just 2.84 expected goals—the Islanders created 3.14—a gap implying the teams were nearly even before the final buzzer.

Goaltending and execution separated the teams. A. Lyon stopped all 26 shots, yielding 3.14 fewer goals than expected. D. Rittich faltered, giving up 1.16 more than expected. Buffalo capitalized ruthlessly: half their high-danger chances (2/4) went in, and they scored three times on 21 rush chances.

New York controlled territory—55% of shot attempts (26–21)—but the scoreboard disagreed. They matched Buffalo in quality chances (4–4 high-danger chances) yet finished with nothing, underperforming their xG by 3.14 goals. The pattern is clear: Buffalo was surgical in the danger zones; New York couldn't capitalize.

The defining instant came in the third period: Alex Tuch's deflection from the slot (14:38) cemented Buffalo's dominance.

Three Stars

#23 M. Samuelsson (BUF) — 2A in 21:32
#71 R. McLeod (BUF) — 2A in 18:14
#17 J. Zucker (BUF) — 2G in 13:44

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 24

BUF

NYI

Sabres shut out the Islanders, 5-0

Chances 2.8 – 3.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Sabres took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

BUF

2.84

NYI

3.14

48% of the chances53%

The board read BUF 5, NYI 0. The chances read BUF 2.8, NYI 3.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BUF

+2.2

goals above expected

BUF2.84 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI3.14 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Sabres scored 2.2 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 00:33BUFJ. Zucker1–0
P2 19:47BUFT. Thompson2–0
P3 00:25BUFJ. Zucker3–0
P3 14:02BUFR. DahlinEN4–0
P3 14:38BUFA. Tuch5–0

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

BUF

32 shots

Final

73 shots

NYI

41 shots

BUF NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 0 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

BUFNYI

2 / 4

1.29 xG

High danger

0 / 4

0.94 xG

3 / 11

1.13 xG

Medium

0 / 19

1.87 xG

0 / 31

0.43 xG

Low

0 / 31

0.33 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

A. Lyon

+3.1

BUF · 26/26

D-

D. Rittich

−1.2

NYI · 16/20

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Sabres shut out the Islanders, 5-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–13no goals

2ndshots 7–7

00:33BUFJ. Zucker(J. Quinn, R. McLeod)1–0
19:47BUFT. Thompson(Z. Benson, M. Samuelsson)2–0

3rdshots 8–6

00:25BUFJ. Zucker(R. McLeod)3–0
14:02BUFR. Dahlinempty net(P. Krebs)4–0
14:38BUFA. Tuch(M. Samuelsson, M. Kesselring)5–0

score reads BUF–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.84

BUF chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.109

BUF puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

46.0%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.84Expected goals3.14

NYI 53% of the chance quality

21Shots on goal26

4High-danger chances4

46All attempts (Corsi)54

Adjusted for score: BUF 43% · NYI 57%

Faceoffs · NYI won84%off65%neu71%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

BUF2 / 4 · 1.29 xG

NYI0 / 4 · 0.94 xG

Medium dangermid-range

BUF3 / 11 · 1.13 xG

NYI0 / 19 · 1.87 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

BUF0 / 31 · 0.43 xG

NYI0 / 31 · 0.33 xG

BUF went 3-for-11 from medium danger on 1.13 expected goals — 1.9 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

BUF

5 G · 2.84 xG · +2.2

NYI

0 G · 3.14 xG · -3.1

0123456

BUF finished +2.2 against expected, NYI -3.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

BUF

SNAP3/22

SLAP0/4

WRIST1/2

BACKHAND0/2

TIP IN0/1

DEFLECTED1/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/14

NYI

SNAP0/20

SLAP0/10

WRIST0/4

BACKHAND0/4

TIP IN0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/13

BUF

NYI

Off the rush

3 G on 21

1.56 xG

0 G on 24

1.94 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 3

0.42 xG

0 G on 2

0.51 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: BUF went 3-for-22, NYI 0-for-20. BUF scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

A. Lyon

BUF · 26/26 · 1.000

+3.1

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium0/191.9+1.9

Low0/310.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Rittich

NYI · 16/20 · .800

-1.2

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/41.3-0.7

Medium3/111.1-1.9

Low0/310.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

73 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

BUF

32 shots

Final

73 shots

NYI

41 shots

BUF NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — BUF left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Samuelsson

#23 · D · BUF

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 21:32 on ice · +4

R. McLeod

#71 · C · BUF

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 18:14 on ice · +2

J. Zucker

#17 · L · BUF

2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 13:44 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Jan 24

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:21 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6–2.6 game with the Islanders at exactly 50% win probability: this is a true toss-up.

Buffalo holds a thin advantage in shot quality, posting 50.0% expected goals against New York's 48.0%. Both teams are indistinguishable in shot volume at 49.0% Corsi. The underlying divergence: Buffalo's 1.020 PDO reflects puck luck, while New York's 0.993 reflects the opposite. Expect some regression from Buffalo.

Jason Zucker drives Buffalo's offense with 1.07 expected goals per 60 minutes, translating to 14 goals and 14 assists on a 15.1% shooting rate; his six high-danger goals exemplify elite finishing. Josh Doan matches that xG/60 at 1.01 with 15 goals and 18 assists at 11.5% shooting on just two high-danger looks—room to run remains. New York counters with Anders Lee, whose 1.20 xG/60 leads the group; his 6.4% shooting rate on 9 goals and 20 assists underscores efficiency beyond volume. Bo Horvat contributes 18 goals and 10 assists from 0.87 xG/60 at 12.8% shooting, grounded by three high-danger tallies.

Both teams share a structural liability: zero high-danger and zero rebound goals, signaling shallow secondary scoring. Defensively, Jack Quinn represents Buffalo's weak link while Alexander Romanov does the same for New York.

The decisive factor is whether Buffalo's luck holds. A PDO regression would compress the Sabres' shooting efficiency from elite to merely very good, erasing their margin in expected goals. That's how New York wins.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYI 51%

50%

NYI

Model favorite

50%

BUF50NYI

NYI by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BUF 2.6–2.6 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

BUF← edge

edge →NYI

50.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.552.48

2.552.69

2.351.78

1.901.94

1.0200.993

BUF holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.020 vs 0.993) says BUF has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

BUF

7-2-1

+13 GD · 1d rest

NYI

5-4-1

+1 GD · 2d rest

1.020

BUF PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

BUF

Expected in goal

—

no game on file

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

2 days rest.875 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

BUF

Jason Zucker14G 14A

1.07 xG/60 · 6 HD · 15.1% sh

Josh Doan15G 18A

1.01 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.5% sh

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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