The Oilers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Oilers' 6-5 overtime victory conceals a goaltending story. Edmonton controlled 66% of 5v5 expected goals (7.64–3.87) and dominated high-danger chances 15–5, yet C. Lindgren stopped 1.64 goals above expected, keeping Washington in a contest that underlying metrics suggested was decided.
The Oilers underperformed their xG by 1.64 goals—wasted quality chances. C. Ingram gave up 1.28 goals more than expected on a lighter workload (0.750 SV%), variance that tightened what the numbers indicated should have been a larger margin.
Edmonton's superiority was structural. The Oilers generated far more dangerous chances—0.101 xG per shot against Washington's 0.060—and were lethal on the rush with 3 goals on 41 chances. The Capitals scored twice on 29 rush attempts.
Both teams scored three goals from low-danger areas. The game was open—20 high-danger chances combined—yet the high-danger differential (15–5) and shot-attempt ratio (40–27) made the reality clear: Edmonton was the better team, and goaltending variance kept it competitive.
E. Bouchard drove play all night with 3 goals and 3 assists in 29:25. C. McDavid's backhander from the doorstep at 00:47 of overtime ended it—the inevitable result of Edmonton's dominance.
