The Sabres won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
Buffalo's 7–4 victory over Toronto tells a story the expected goals didn't: a rout on the scoreboard, a near tie in underlying quality. The Sabres' xG split 3.29–3.33, nearly 50–50, yet they scored seven while the Maple Leafs scored four. The gap was pure variance—Buffalo overperformed their expected goals by 3.67; Toronto overperformed theirs by only 0.71.
Process favored neither team much. The Maple Leafs held 43% of shot attempts (23–31 on goal), traded high-danger chances at 5–4, and scored two goals off 25 rush chances. Their goaltender J. Woll saved 24 of 30 shots but ran 2.67 goals short of expected, suggesting Buffalo's finishing was lethal or lucky, probably both.
Buffalo was more lethal off the rush, scoring five of 31 chances. Their four goals from low-danger areas made the difference. C. Ellis entered in relief and delivered 16 saves on 18 shots with a +0.58 expected performance, while U. Luukkonen's early work proved costly—1.3 goals worse than expected on five shots.
Rasmus Dahlin drove the offense with three goals and two assists. His wrist shot from the top of the circles at 19:16 of the third period proved the turning point. M. Samuelsson distributed three assists in support, while Toronto's A. Matthews posted one goal and two assists despite the loss.