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Motion-blurred skater in a Montreal Canadiens sweater
← Tue, Jan 27 · the slate
Breakdown · VGK at MTL

J. Dobes stands tall as the Canadiens edge the Golden Knights

Final / OTTue, Jan 27
VGKVegas Golden Knights2MTLMontreal Canadiens3
The verdict · stolen

The Canadiens stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.81–4.32 and won anyway.

VGK 2 · MTL 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:45 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas out-chanced Montreal 11–6 on high-danger chances and still lost 3–2 in overtime. J. Dobes saved 2.81 goals above expected while A. Schmid stopped 1.32 above expected—a gap that decided the game.

Montreal was lethal off the rush (two goals on 25 chances), and Jake Evans's backhander at 03:58 of overtime ended it.

Vegas held a measurable advantage: 4.81 expected goals to Montreal's 4.32. Yet the Golden Knights converted zero of their 11 high-danger chances. They scored twice from low-danger spots, the kind opposing goalies typically stop. Vegas created eight rebound opportunities and converted none; Montreal created four and converted one.

Vegas generated superior chances and wasted them.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Jan 27
VGK
2
MTL
3

J. Dobes stands tall as the Canadiens edge the Golden Knights

Chances 4.8 – 4.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
4.81
MTL
4.32
53% of the chances47%

The board read VGK 2, MTL 3. The chances read VGK 4.8, MTL 4.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
−1.3
goals above expected
MTL4.32 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK4.81 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Golden Knights left 2.8 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 08:38VGKP. Dorofeyev1–0
  2. P2 04:24MTLP. Danault1–1
  3. P2 08:55MTLC. Caufield1–2
  4. P3 16:52VGKP. Dorofeyev2–2
  5. OT 03:58MTLJ. Evans2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
45 shots
2
Final
89 shots
MTL
44 shots
3
VGK attackMTL attack
VGK MTL Goal
45
shots · 2 in
44
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKMTL
0 / 11
2.79 xG
High danger
2 / 6
1.94 xG
0 / 13
1.41 xG
Medium
0 / 16
1.71 xG
2 / 39
0.60 xG
Low
1 / 41
0.67 xG

The Golden Knights went 0 for 11 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Dobes
+2.8
MTL · 32/34
B+
A. Schmid
+1.3
VGK · 23/26
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

J. Dobes stands tall as the Canadiens edge the Golden Knights

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–8
  1. 08:38VGKP. Dorofeyev1–0
2ndshots 10–12
  1. 04:24MTLP. Danault(Z. Bolduc)1–1
  2. 08:55MTLC. Caufield(N. Dobson, M. Matheson)1–2
3rdshots 13–3
  1. 16:52VGKP. Dorofeyev(B. Hutton, B. Bowman)2–2
OTshots 1–3
  1. 03:58MTLJ. Evans(A. Texier)2–3

score reads VGK–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.32
MTL chances
Goals their shots were worth
−1.3
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.016
MTL puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
50.0%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.81Expected goals4.32
VGK 53% of the chance quality
34Shots on goal26
11High-danger chances6
63All attempts (Corsi)63
Adjusted for score: VGK 50% · MTL 50%
Faceoffs · MTL won40%off46%neu50%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
VGK0 / 11 · 2.79 xG
MTL2 / 6 · 1.94 xG
Medium dangermid-range
VGK0 / 13 · 1.41 xG
MTL0 / 16 · 1.71 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
VGK2 / 39 · 0.60 xG
MTL1 / 41 · 0.67 xG

VGK went 0-for-11 from high danger on 2.79 expected goals — 2.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
VGK
2 G · 4.81 xG · -2.8
MTL
3 G · 4.32 xG · -1.3
0123456

VGK finished -2.8 against expected, MTL -1.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
VGK
SNAP1/34
BACKHAND0/2
WRIST0/3
TIP IN1/2
SLAP0/3
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/18
MTL
SNAP0/22
BACKHAND2/8
WRIST0/4
TIP IN1/5
SLAP0/3
DEFLECTED0/2
OTHER0/19
VGK
MTL
Off the rush
2 G on 28
3.07 xG
2 G on 25
2.90 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 8
1.51 xG
1 G on 4
0.75 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: VGK went 1-for-34, MTL 0-for-22. VGK scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
A. Schmid
VGK · 23/26 · .885
+1.3
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/61.9-0.1
Medium0/161.7+1.7
Low1/410.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Dobes
MTL · 32/34 · .941
+2.8
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/112.8+2.8
Medium0/131.4+1.4
Low2/390.6-1.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
VGK
45 shots
2
Final
89 shots
MTL
44 shots
3
VGK attackMTL attack
VGK MTL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
P. Dorofeyev
#16 · R · VGK
2 G · 0 A · 8 SOG · 19:16 on ice · +2
M. Matheson
#8 · D · MTL
0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 24:25 on ice · +2
N. Dobson
#53 · D · MTL
0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 20:41 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Jan 27
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:44 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects Vegas at 54% win probability—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The underlying metrics explain why: Vegas owns the play and the expected-goal advantage, while Montreal's hot shooting creates a plausible counter.

Vegas has controlled almost everything. They're generating shot quality at 54.0% expected goals versus Montreal's 48.0%, and they're winning the territorial battle at 52.0% Corsi. That's the kind of edge that typically wins games. Montreal's counter is simpler: they're running hot at 1.018 PDO, which means they're outperforming their underlying talent by more than a full percentage point. Vegas, meanwhile, sits at 0.983 PDO—they're underperforming their play and should regress upward.

The offensive matchups reveal where variance is most likely to correct. Brandon Saad leads Vegas with 0.91 xG/60 and 3G 6A, shooting at an unsustainably low 4.1%. Tomas Hertl (0.88 xG/60, 5G 17A) is equally dangerous, and his 4.3% shooting rate is equally unlikely to hold. Cole Caufield remains Montreal's best weapon—0.97 xG/60 and 33 goals this season—but his 20.0% conversion rate is an outlier by definition. Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19G 12A) adds secondary scoring, though his 17.8% shooting suggests he's benefiting from the team's hot streak rather than driving it.

The defensive battleground is equally clear. Rasmus Andersson must handle Vegas' 52.0% Corsi advantage and the volume it creates. Mike Matheson faces Montreal's mounting challenge: they can't sustain this shooting percentage, and when it regresses, Vegas' territorial control becomes decisive.

The model says Vegas. The underlying play says Vegas. Montreal is simply running hot.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 54%
54%
VGK
Model favorite
54%
46%
VGK50MTL

VGK by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 2.6–2.4 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
VGK← edge
edge →MTL
54.0%48.0%
52.0%49.0%
2.522.41
2.112.62
2.122.24
2.101.96
0.9831.018

VGK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.018) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
VGK
7-3-0
+11 GD · 2d rest
MTL
5-4-1
+2 GD · 2d rest
0.983
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
VGK
Expected in goal
A. Hill
2 days rest.781 last start
Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL
Expected in goal
S. Montembeault
2 days rest.800 last start
Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
VGK
Brandon Saad3G 6A
0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
Tomas Hertl5G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
MTL
Cole Caufield33G 16A
0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
Oliver Kapanen19G 12A
0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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