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Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater
← Wed, Jan 28 · the slate
Breakdown · PHI at CBJ

Blue Jackets hold off the Flyers

FinalWed, Jan 28
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers3CBJColumbus Blue Jackets5
The verdict · coin flip

The Blue Jackets won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

PHI 3 · CBJ 5
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:01 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus's 5-3 victory masks how close the underlying play actually was — expected goals finished 4.04–3.91, essentially even. The Blue Jackets' goaltending was the difference.

Shot attempts and high-danger chances both favored Columbus (31–27, 6–5). E. Merzlikins was elite: 0.889 save percentage, +0.91 variance. D. Vladar recorded 0.867.

Mathieu Olivier's wrist shot from the high slot (third period, 18:54) was the turning point.

Columbus capitalized on the rush, converting 4 of 25 chances. Philadelphia crashed the net, generating 5 rebound opportunities but converting only one.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 28
PHI
3
CBJ
5

Blue Jackets hold off the Flyers

Chances 3.9 – 4.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Blue Jackets took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
PHI
3.91
CBJ
4.04
49% of the chances51%

The board read PHI 3, CBJ 5. The chances read PHI 3.9, CBJ 4.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CBJ
+1.0
goals above expected
CBJ4.04 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
PHI3.91 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 00:38CBJC. Coyle0–1
  2. P1 09:03PHIT. Konecny1–1
  3. P1 19:40CBJK. Marchenko1–2
  4. P2 01:58CBJE. Gudbranson1–3
  5. P3 04:08PHIT. Konecny2–3
  6. P3 15:14PHIT. Konecny3–3
  7. P3 16:32CBJS. Monahan3–4
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
PHI
43 shots
3
Final
85 shots
CBJ
42 shots
5
PHI attackCBJ attack
PHI CBJ Goal
43
shots · 3 in
42
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
PHICBJ
1 / 5
1.16 xG
High danger
2 / 6
1.98 xG
2 / 19
2.06 xG
Medium
2 / 12
1.47 xG
0 / 31
0.68 xG
Low
1 / 42
0.59 xG

The Blue Jackets buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
E. Merzlikins
+0.9
CBJ · 24/27
C
D. Vladar
+0.0
PHI · 26/30
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets hold off the Flyers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–7
  1. 00:38CBJC. Coyle(M. Olivier, Z. Werenski)0–1
  2. 09:03PHIT. Konecny(C. York, N. Juulsen)1–1
  3. 19:40CBJK. Marchenko(Z. Werenski, A. Fantilli)1–2
2ndshots 6–16
  1. 01:58CBJE. Gudbranson(C. Sillinger, C. Coyle)1–3
3rdshots 14–8
  1. 04:08PHIT. Konecny(C. Dvorak, J. Drysdale)2–3
  2. 15:14PHIT. Konecny(T. Sanheim)3–3
  3. 16:32CBJS. Monahan(D. Severson, K. Johnson)3–4
  4. 18:54CBJM. Olivierempty net(C. Sillinger)3–5

score reads PHI–CBJ

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.04
CBJ chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.0
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.029
CBJ puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
52.2%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.91Expected goals4.04
CBJ 51% of the chance quality
27Shots on goal31
5High-danger chances6
55All attempts (Corsi)60
Adjusted for score: PHI 53% · CBJ 47%
Faceoffs · CBJ won62%off55%neu71%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
PHI1 / 5 · 1.16 xG
CBJ2 / 6 · 1.98 xG
Medium dangermid-range
PHI2 / 19 · 2.06 xG
CBJ2 / 12 · 1.47 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
PHI0 / 31 · 0.68 xG
CBJ1 / 42 · 0.59 xG

PHI went 0-for-31 from low danger on 0.68 expected goals — 0.7 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
PHI
3 G · 3.91 xG · -0.9
CBJ
5 G · 4.04 xG · +1.0
0123456

PHI finished -0.9 against expected, CBJ +1.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
PHI
WRIST2/18
SNAP1/10
SLAP0/6
BACKHAND0/3
TIP IN0/5
DEFLECTED0/1
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/12
CBJ
WRIST3/20
SNAP1/9
SLAP1/7
BACKHAND0/4
TIP IN0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/18
PHI
CBJ
Off the rush
1 G on 26
2.42 xG
4 G on 25
3.04 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 5
0.81 xG
0 G on 2
0.36 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: PHI went 2-for-18, CBJ 3-for-20. CBJ scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
D. Vladar
PHI · 26/30 · .867
+0.0
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/62.0-0.0
Medium2/121.5-0.5
Low1/420.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

E. Merzlikins
CBJ · 24/27 · .889
+0.9
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/51.2+0.2
Medium2/192.1+0.1
Low0/310.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

85 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
PHI
43 shots
3
Final
85 shots
CBJ
42 shots
5
PHI attackCBJ attack
PHI CBJ Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — PHI left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
T. Konecny
#11 · R · PHI
3 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 21:30 on ice · +1
Z. Werenski
#8 · D · CBJ
0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 22:58 on ice
C. Coyle
#3 · C · CBJ
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 18:35 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Jan 28
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:57 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model calls this a 2.4-2.5 game with Columbus at 53% win probability—a pick'em dressed up in slight-edge clothing.

The Blue Jackets have done the winning recently, posting a 6-4-0 record over their last 10 games, while Philadelphia sits at minus-19 in goal differential over the same stretch.

Both teams' underlying metrics are bunched tight. Columbus edges Philadelphia in expected goals percentage, 52.0% to 51.0%, and holds a more meaningful Corsi advantage at 51.0% to 48.0%—expect the Blue Jackets to spend more time in Philadelphia's end. Their luck numbers are virtually identical: Columbus at 1.003 PDO, Philadelphia at 1.008.

Columbus gets the rest advantage here. The Blue Jackets arrive fresh off three days off, while the Flyers skate in on just one day of rest.

S. Ersson is on a back-to-back; watch for either a backup start or a tired starter.

Owen Tippett drives Philadelphia's attack at 0.88 expected goals per 60 minutes, carrying 19 goals and 18 assists with 2 high-danger goals and a 12.1% shooting percentage. Christian Dvorak, at 0.81 xG/60, has 12 goals and 21 assists, with 3 high-danger goals at 11.2% shooting.

Columbus counters with Boone Jenner at the top of the depth chart: 0.98 xG/60, 11 goals, 21 assists, 2 high-danger goals, 9.6% shooting. Mathieu Olivier sits beneath him at 0.89 xG/60 with 12 goals and 9 assists, 1 high-danger goal, and a notably hot 13.3% shooting percentage.

On defense, Christian Dvorak represents Philadelphia's weak link, while Conor Garland does the same for Columbus. Both teams profile at 0% high-danger and rebound-goal rates—an unusual coincidence that bears monitoring.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 53%
53%
CBJ
Model favorite
47%
53%
PHI50CBJ

CBJ by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score PHI 2.4–2.5 CBJ; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
PHI← edge
edge →CBJ
51.0%52.0%
48.0%51.0%
2.262.63
2.202.43
1.962.12
1.821.98
1.0081.003

CBJ holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.008 vs 1.003) says PHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
PHI
2-6-2
-19 GD · 1d rest
CBJ
6-4-0
-1 GD · 3d rest
1.008
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.003
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • S. Ersson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Blue Jackets are the hotter team by points pace (6-4-0 in their last 10).
  • The Flyers are underwater at -19 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Blue Jackets have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
PHI
Expected in goal
S. Ersson
back-to-back.826 last start
Backup Dan Vladar · +13.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CBJ
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
3 days rest.833 last start
Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
PHI
Owen Tippett19G 18A
0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh
Christian Dvorak12G 21A
0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh
CBJ
Boone Jenner11G 21A
0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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