Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · NYR at NYI

Islanders run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalWed, Jan 28

NYRNew York Rangers2 NYINew York Islanders5

The verdict · earned

The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYR 2 · NYI 5

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:11 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders beat the Rangers 5-2 with a performance that left no ambiguity. They converted high-danger chances 4–0, controlled 69% of shot attempts (36–16), and posted 67% of 5v5 expected goals (3.76–1.86).

The gap in shot quality proved decisive. The Islanders generated 0.061 expected goals per shot to the Rangers' 0.042, a difference that separated opportunistic hockey from desperation. They scored three times on 28 rush chances; the Rangers twice on 18. The power play went the Islanders' way: two goals on 15 shots (1.16 xG).

The Islanders overperformed their expected goals by 1.24—a sign of clinical finishing. S. Martin's save percentage of 0.861 was 1.24 goals below league-average for his workload, an underperformance that merely punctuated a game the Islanders controlled from start to finish.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 28

NYR

NYI

Islanders run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 1.9 – 3.8Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Islanders earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

1.86

NYI

3.76

33% of the chances67%

The board read NYR 2, NYI 5. The chances read NYR 1.9, NYI 3.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

+1.2

goals above expected

NYI3.76 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

NYR1.86 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 14:59NYIO. PalatPP0–1
P1 16:10NYIS. Holmstrom0–2
P1 18:04NYRM. ZibanejadPP1–2
P2 13:12NYIM. BarzalPP1–3
P2 13:59NYIJ. Pageau1–4
P2 15:42NYRT. Raddysh2–4
P2 19:12NYIE. Heineman2–5

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

28 shots

Final

76 shots

NYI

48 shots

NYR NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRNYI

0 / 0

0.00 xG

High danger

1 / 4

0.99 xG

1 / 10

1.33 xG

Medium

4 / 18

2.07 xG

1 / 34

0.53 xG

Low

0 / 40

0.70 xG

High-danger looks: NYR 0 of 0, NYI 1 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

D. Rittich

−0.1

NYI · 14/16

D-

S. Martin

−1.2

NYR · 31/36

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Islanders run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–14

14:59NYIO. Palatpower play(S. Holmstrom, M. Schaefer)0–1
16:10NYIS. Holmstrom(T. DeAngelo, J. Pageau)0–2
18:04NYRM. Zibanejadpower play(J. Miller, V. Gavrikov)1–2

2ndshots 6–14

13:12NYIM. Barzalpower play(S. Holmstrom, B. Horvat)1–3
13:59NYIJ. Pageau(M. Gatcomb, K. MacLean)1–4
15:42NYRT. Raddysh(N. Laba, W. Borgen)2–4
19:12NYIE. Heineman(A. Pelech, O. Palat)2–5

3rdshots 3–8no goals

score reads NYR–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.76

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.035

NYI puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

58.5%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.86Expected goals3.76

NYI 67% of the chance quality

16Shots on goal36

0High-danger chances4

44All attempts (Corsi)62

Adjusted for score: NYR 46% · NYI 54%

Faceoffs · NYI won60%off53%neu58%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR0 / 0 · 0.00 xG

NYI1 / 4 · 0.99 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR1 / 10 · 1.33 xG

NYI4 / 18 · 2.07 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR1 / 34 · 0.53 xG

NYI0 / 40 · 0.70 xG

NYI went 4-for-18 from medium danger on 2.07 expected goals — 1.9 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

2 G · 1.86 xG · +0.1

NYI

5 G · 3.76 xG · +1.2

0123456

NYR finished +0.1 against expected, NYI +1.2.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

WRIST1/13

SNAP1/5

TIP IN0/3

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/3

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/16

NYI

WRIST0/17

SNAP3/11

TIP IN1/9

SLAP0/7

BACKHAND1/3

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/14

NYR

NYI

Off the rush

2 G on 18

1.45 xG

3 G on 28

2.88 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.05 xG

1 G on 6

0.58 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 1-for-13, NYI 0-for-17. NYI scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

S. Martin

NYR · 31/36 · .861

-1.2

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/41.0-0.0

Medium4/182.1-1.9

Low0/400.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Rittich

NYI · 14/16 · .875

-0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

Medium1/101.3+0.3

Low1/340.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

76 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

28 shots

Final

76 shots

NYI

48 shots

NYR NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

S. Holmstrom

#10 · R · NYI

1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 15:53 on ice · +1

J. Pageau

#44 · C · NYI

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 13:31 on ice · +2

O. Palat

#81 · L · NYI

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 11:53 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Jan 28

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:52 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model calls this even: the Islanders at 52% win probability, a projected score between 2.5 and 2.6, and no structural advantage to either team. In a league of decisive outcomes, this is as close to a coin flip as the numbers permit.

The Islanders have run warmer—5 wins, 4 losses, and 1 overtime loss over their last 10 games gives them a points-per-game rate that edges New York's. But the Rangers are underwater at minus-19 goal differential over that span, a gap that whispers beneath the record. Two teams on opposite recent trajectories arriving at the same projected line.

The underlying metrics explain the stalemate. At even strength, both clubs post 48.0% expected goals and 49.0% Corsi percentages—identical to the tenth of a point. The Rangers' PDO of 1.009 suggests unsustainable luck; the Islanders' 0.993 suggests the opposite. When two teams generate identical play quality yet post different results, neither has captured an edge.

Both goalies navigate back-to-backs. I. Sorokin and J. Quick may start taxed or cede to backups, a variable the model cannot quantify but the arena will feel.

Players to Watch

NYR: Adam Sykora (3G, 1A, 0.91 xG/60, 20.0% SH%) and Gabe Perreault (8G, 11A, 2 HD goals, 0.79 xG/60, 13.1% SH%).

NYI: Anders Lee (9G, 20A, 1.20 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 6.4% SH%) and Bo Horvat (18G, 10A, 0.87 xG/60, 3 HD goals, 12.8% SH%).

The margin separating these teams is a rounding error. Expect a result that settles nothing.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYI 52%

52%

NYI

Model favorite

48%

52%

NYR50NYI

NYI by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYR 2.5–2.6 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →NYI

48.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.262.48

2.402.69

1.881.78

1.901.94

1.0090.993

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.009 vs 0.993) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYR

2-7-1

-19 GD · 1d rest

NYI

5-4-1

+4 GD · 1d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

I. Sorokin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Quick is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Islanders are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 in their last 10).
The Rangers are underwater at -19 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYR

Expected in goal

J. Quick

back-to-back.875 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

back-to-back1.000 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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