Islanders run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
The Islanders beat the Rangers 5-2 with a performance that left no ambiguity. They converted high-danger chances 4–0, controlled 69% of shot attempts (36–16), and posted 67% of 5v5 expected goals (3.76–1.86).
The gap in shot quality proved decisive. The Islanders generated 0.061 expected goals per shot to the Rangers' 0.042, a difference that separated opportunistic hockey from desperation. They scored three times on 28 rush chances; the Rangers twice on 18. The power play went the Islanders' way: two goals on 15 shots (1.16 xG).
The Islanders overperformed their expected goals by 1.24—a sign of clinical finishing. S. Martin's save percentage of 0.861 was 1.24 goals below league-average for his workload, an underperformance that merely punctuated a game the Islanders controlled from start to finish.
The danger ladder
NYI went 4-for-18 from medium danger on 2.07 expected goals — 1.9 above expected.
Finishing vs expected
NYR finished +0.1 against expected, NYI +1.2 — S. Martin (NYR) allowed 1.2 more goals than expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 1-for-13, NYI 0-for-17. NYI scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
- S. Martin (NYR) gave up 1.2 goals more than expected — well below their workload.
- NYI generated far more dangerous chances — 0.061 xG/shot vs 0.042. Quality over quantity.
- NYI was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 28 rush chances.
- NYR was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 18 rush chances.
- NYI created 6 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- NYI power play was dominant — 2 PPG on 15 PP shots (1.16 xG).