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Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater
← Tue, Jan 27 · the slate
Breakdown · WSH at SEA

Kraken pull away from the Capitals

FinalTue, Jan 27
WSHWashington Capitals1SEASeattle Kraken5
The verdict · earned

The Kraken earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WSH 1 · SEA 5
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:54 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The scoreboard read 5-1, but expected goals said a different story—one where Seattle controlled play without dominating by quite that much. The Kraken held 59% of 5v5 xG (3.88–2.69), a clear edge that didn't explain a 4-goal win alone.

Goaltending variance created the gap. P. Grubauer saved 1.69 goals above expected; L. Thompson gave up 1.1 more than expected, well below what his workload demanded. Together, this swing accounted for nearly all of Seattle's margin beyond their xG advantage.

Grubauer's dominance stood out even in Seattle's strong overall performance. The Kraken were lethal on the rush (3 goals on 30 chances), thrived in low-danger areas where goalies should tighten up, and crashed the net effectively (6 rebound opportunities, 2 converted). Washington, conversely, underperformed their xG by 1.7—they wasted quality chances.

Matty Beniers's wrist shot from the slot at 16:27 of the third sealed the result.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 27
WSH
1
SEA
5

Kraken pull away from the Capitals

Chances 2.7 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Kraken earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
WSH
2.69
SEA
3.88
41% of the chances59%

The board read WSH 1, SEA 5. The chances read WSH 2.7, SEA 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
SEA
+1.1
goals above expected
SEA3.88 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH2.69 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals left 1.7 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 01:15SEAJ. McCannPP0–1
  2. P2 10:09SEAJ. McCann0–2
  3. P2 17:54SEAJ. Eberle0–3
  4. P3 02:30WSHA. OvechkinPP1–3
  5. P3 13:12SEAR. Evans1–4
  6. P3 16:27SEAM. Beniers1–5
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WSH
29 shots
1
Final
76 shots
SEA
47 shots
5
WSH attackSEA attack
WSH SEA Goal
29
shots · 1 in
47
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WSHSEA
1 / 3
0.76 xG
High danger
2 / 6
1.35 xG
0 / 13
1.56 xG
Medium
1 / 16
1.81 xG
0 / 31
0.36 xG
Low
2 / 41
0.72 xG

The Kraken buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
P. Grubauer
+1.7
SEA · 19/20
D-
L. Thompson
−1.1
WSH · 27/32
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Kraken pull away from the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 4–13no goals
    2ndshots 7–8
    1. 01:15SEAJ. McCannpower play(J. Eberle, C. Stephenson)0–1
    2. 10:09SEAJ. McCann(M. Beniers, R. Lindgren)0–2
    3. 17:54SEAJ. Eberle(J. McCann, A. Larsson)0–3
    3rdshots 9–11
    1. 02:30WSHA. Ovechkinpower play(R. Leonard, J. Chychrun)1–3
    2. 13:12SEAR. Evans(F. Gaudreau)1–4
    3. 16:27SEAM. Beniers(J. McCann, B. Montour)1–5

    score reads WSH–SEA

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.88
    SEA chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +1.1
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.058
    SEA puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    57.3%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.69Expected goals3.88
    SEA 59% of the chance quality
    20Shots on goal32
    3High-danger chances6
    47All attempts (Corsi)63
    Adjusted for score: WSH 48% · SEA 53%
    Faceoffs · SEA won50%off64%neu38%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    WSH1 / 3 · 0.76 xG
    SEA2 / 6 · 1.35 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    WSH0 / 13 · 1.56 xG
    SEA1 / 16 · 1.81 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    WSH0 / 31 · 0.36 xG
    SEA2 / 41 · 0.72 xG

    WSH went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.56 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    WSH
    1 G · 2.69 xG · -1.7
    SEA
    5 G · 3.88 xG · +1.1
    0123456

    WSH finished -1.7 against expected, SEA +1.1.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    WSH
    WRIST0/16
    SNAP1/2
    TIP IN0/6
    BACKHAND0/4
    SLAP0/0
    DEFLECTED0/1
    POKE0/0
    OTHER0/18
    SEA
    WRIST4/27
    SNAP0/10
    TIP IN0/3
    BACKHAND0/2
    SLAP1/4
    DEFLECTED0/0
    POKE0/1
    OTHER0/16
    WSH
    SEA
    Off the rush
    1 G on 23
    2.20 xG
    3 G on 30
    2.48 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 1
    0.30 xG
    2 G on 6
    1.05 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 0-for-16, SEA 4-for-27. SEA scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    L. Thompson
    WSH · 27/32 · .844
    -1.1
    saved above expected
    D-
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/61.4-0.7
    Medium1/161.8+0.8
    Low2/410.7-1.3

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    P. Grubauer
    SEA · 19/20 · .950
    +1.7
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/30.8-0.2
    Medium0/131.6+1.6
    Low0/310.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    76 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    WSH
    29 shots
    1
    Final
    76 shots
    SEA
    47 shots
    5
    WSH attackSEA attack
    WSH SEA Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. McCann
    #19 · L · SEA
    2 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 14:11 on ice · +3
    M. Beniers
    #10 · C · SEA
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 17:35 on ice · +3
    J. Eberle
    #7 · R · SEA
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 15:07 on ice · +3
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Tue, Jan 27
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:52 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model has Washington favored at 51% win probability, which is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The projection: 2.6 goals for the Capitals, 2.5 for Seattle.

    The edge belongs to Washington's underlying play. At 5v5, the Capitals own 50.0% xG and 49.0% Corsi — territorial control that typically compounds over 60 minutes. Seattle sits at 46.0% xG and 45.0% Corsi. Washington's PDO of 1.018 suggests some regression coming, but their offensive structure is genuinely better.

    The catch: both teams are in freefall. Washington and Seattle each carry a -6 goal differential over their last 10 games, meaning both are underperforming their models. When two teams this cold collide, form trumps fancy analytics.

    The Capitals' firepower centers on Alex Ovechkin, who carries 0.97 xG per 60 minutes and has 19 goals with a 13.8% shooting percentage — he's both generating chances and converting them. Anthony Beauvillier (0.89 xG/60, 14 goals, 10.4% shooting) provides secondary punch. Seattle counters with Shane Wright (0.77 xG/60, 8 goals, 4 high-danger goals) and Berkly Catton (0.68 xG/60, 6 goals, 8.8% shooting, 5 high-danger goals), but neither matches the Capitals' top-end creation rate.

    Defensively, Washington has a weak link in Declan Chisholm; Seattle's is Chandler Stephenson. Neither team has scored from high-danger situations or rebounds, muting any advantage from the other's defensive lapses.

    The verdict stands: Washington should win. Whether they will is the coin flip.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    WSH 51%
    51%
    WSH
    Model favorite
    51%
    49%
    WSH50SEA

    WSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.6–2.5 SEA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH← edge
    edge →SEA
    50.0%46.0%
    49.0%45.0%
    2.622.13
    2.622.51
    2.181.87
    1.791.95
    1.0181.011

    WSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.011) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    WSH
    3-6-1
    -6 GD · 2d rest
    SEA
    3-5-2
    -6 GD · 2d rest
    1.018
    WSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.011
    SEA PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Capitals own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
    • The Capitals drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Capitals own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
    • The Capitals drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • The Kraken are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Capitals are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    WSH
    Expected in goal
    C. Lindgren
    2 days rest.850 last start
    Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    SEA
    Expected in goal
    J. Daccord
    2 days rest.931 last start
    Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH
    Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
    0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
    Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
    SEA
    Shane Wright8G 10A
    0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh
    Berkly Catton6G 8A
    0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page