Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater

Breakdown · WSH at DET

Capitals steal one from the Red Wings against the run of play

Final / OTThu, Jan 29

WSHWashington Capitals4 DETDetroit Red Wings3

The verdict · stolen

The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.08–2.94 and won anyway.

WSH 4 · DET 3

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:14 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Washington's 4-3 shootout win over Detroit masked a dominance mismatch: the Red Wings generated 59% of expected goals (2.94–2.08), yet left empty-handed. The Capitals overperformed their xG by 1.92 goals—this was conversion on an elite scale.

Detroit controlled play at 5v5, outshooting Washington 23–21, but quality told a different story. The Capitals were lethal on the rush, scoring 3 goals from just 22 rush attempts. Detroit managed only 2 goals from low-danger areas—mistakes J. Gibson should have stopped, though he did save at 0.870 SV%, slightly below expected.

C. Lindgren (0.857 SV%) was the difference. On a night when the Red Wings' power play scored twice on 19 shots (1.37 xG), Washington's penalty kill had to hold. It did.

The shootout winner—Nic Dowd's backhander from the doorstep—epitomized the Capitals' efficiency. J. Chychrun led play throughout with 3 assists in 26:58, finding space in transition. D. Strome added 1 goal and 1 assist in 18:31, cashing chances when they mattered.

Detroit's A. DeBrincat potted 2 goals with 1 assist in 21:28, but even 3 points wasn't enough to overcome a deficit in execution. The Red Wings owned process; Washington owned the result.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Jan 29

WSH

DET

Capitals steal one from the Red Wings against the run of play

Chances 2.1 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Red Wings deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

WSH

2.08

DET

2.94

41% of the chances59%

The board read WSH 4, DET 3. The chances read WSH 2.1, DET 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

WSH

+1.9

goals above expected

WSH2.08 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

DET2.94 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Capitals scored 1.9 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 06:27WSHN. Dowd1–0
P2 09:52DETB. Chiarot1–1
P3 09:36WSHD. Strome2–1
P3 14:44WSHD. Chisholm3–1
P3 18:20DETA. DeBrincatPP3–2
P3 19:07DETA. DeBrincatPP3–3
SO 00:00DETL. RaymondPP3–3

+4 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

WSH

34 shots

Final

77 shots

DET

43 shots

WSH DET GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

shots · 6 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

WSHDET

0 / 4

0.92 xG

High danger

1 / 6

1.37 xG

2 / 6

0.57 xG

Medium

0 / 10

1.02 xG

1 / 39

0.58 xG

Low

2 / 47

0.55 xG

High-danger looks: WSH 0 of 4, DET 1 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

C. Lindgren

−0.1

WSH · 18/21

D-

J. Gibson

−0.9

DET · 20/23

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Capitals steal one from the Red Wings against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–3

06:27WSHN. Dowd(C. McMichael, J. Chychrun)1–0

2ndshots 8–8

09:52DETB. Chiarot(A. DeBrincat, P. Kane)1–1

3rdshots 5–9

09:36WSHD. Strome(A. Ovechkin, J. Chychrun)2–1
14:44WSHD. Chisholm(J. Chychrun, D. Strome)3–1
18:20DETA. DeBrincatpower play(D. Larkin, A. Copp)3–2
19:07DETA. DeBrincatpower play(M. Seider)3–3

OTshots 3–1no goals

00:00DETL. Raymondpower play3–3
00:00WSHD. Stromepower play3–3
00:00DETP. Kanepower play3–3
00:00WSHR. Leonardpower play3–3
00:00WSHN. Dowdpower play3–3

score reads WSH–DET

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.08

WSH chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.9

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.014

WSH puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

43.8%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.08Expected goals2.94

DET 59% of the chance quality

23Shots on goal21

4High-danger chances6

49All attempts (Corsi)63

Adjusted for score: WSH 41% · DET 59%

Faceoffs · DET won50%off47%neu40%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

WSH0 / 4 · 0.92 xG

DET1 / 6 · 1.37 xG

Medium dangermid-range

WSH2 / 6 · 0.57 xG

DET0 / 10 · 1.02 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

WSH1 / 39 · 0.58 xG

DET2 / 47 · 0.55 xG

DET went 2-for-47 from low danger on 0.55 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

WSH

4 G · 2.08 xG · +1.9

DET

3 G · 2.94 xG · +0.1

012345

WSH finished +1.9 against expected, DET +0.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

WSH

WRIST0/14

SNAP1/6

SLAP0/5

BACKHAND0/3

TIP IN0/1

DEFLECTED1/1

WRAP AROUND1/1

OTHER0/18

DET

WRIST2/18

SNAP0/12

SLAP1/6

BACKHAND0/1

TIP IN0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/23

WSH

DET

Off the rush

3 G on 22

1.69 xG

1 G on 27

2.56 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.25 xG

0 G on 1

0.21 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 0-for-14, DET 2-for-18. WSH scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Lindgren

WSH · 18/21 · .857

-0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/61.4+0.4

Medium0/101.0+1.0

Low2/470.6-1.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Gibson

DET · 20/23 · .870

-0.9

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium2/60.6-1.4

Low1/390.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

77 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

WSH

34 shots

Final

77 shots

DET

43 shots

WSH DET GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, DET right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Chychrun

#6 · D · WSH

0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 26:58 on ice · +3

A. DeBrincat

#93 · R · DET

2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 21:28 on ice · +2

D. Strome

#17 · C · WSH

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 18:31 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Jan 29

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:13 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model gives this to Detroit at 51% — the definition of a coin flip. The Red Wings are 7-2-1 over their last 10. The Capitals are -7 in goal differential over the same span. But underlying metrics narrow the gap.

At 5v5, both teams are statistically even. WSH posts 50.0% expected goals to DET's 49.0%. Corsi% is tied at 49.0% each. The Capitals' 1.018 PDO suggests they're running hot and regression is coming. Detroit's 0.985 suggests upside.

Both J. Gibson and L. Thompson play on back-to-backs. Watch for a backup start.

The matchup lives on depth scoring. Alex Ovechkin maintains 0.97 xG/60 and 19 goals. Anthony Beauvillier supplements with 0.89 xG/60 and a 10.4% shooting clip. Detroit counters with Alex DeBrincat at 0.88 xG/60 and 17 goals, anchored by 28 assists. Marco Kasper's 0.81 xG/60 offers secondary punch. The scoring spread between Ovechkin and DeBrincat is negligible; Beauvillier's efficiency advantage over Kasper (6.1% shooting) is marginal.

Declan Chisholm and Axel Sandin-Pellikka emerge as defensive liabilities. Both teams run 0% high-danger and 0% rebound-goal rates. This plays as a tight, low-event game.

Detroit has rest. Washington has top-end talent. The tiebreaker is the coin.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

DET 51%

51%

DET

Model favorite

49%

51%

WSH50DET

DET by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.6–2.6 DET; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH← edge

edge →DET

50.0%49.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.622.38

2.622.50

2.181.73

1.792.07

1.0180.985

WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.985) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

WSH

3-6-1

-7 GD · 1d rest

DET

7-2-1

+11 GD · 1d rest

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.985

DET PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

J. Gibson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Red Wings are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 in their last 10).
The Capitals are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

WSH

Expected in goal

L. Thompson

back-to-back.844 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

DET

Expected in goal

J. Gibson

back-to-back.905 last start

Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

DET

Alex DeBrincat17G 28A

0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh

Marco Kasper7G 8A

0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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