The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Devils' 3-2 overtime victory masked a quality-chance advantage for Nashville: the Predators created six high-danger opportunities to New Jersey's five, yet finished with only two goals. The gap between underlying structure and scoreline reveals how much goaltending and small-sample variance can swing close contests.
The underlying play split nearly even. New Jersey held 55% of shot attempts (35–29 on goal) and led in expected goals 3.84 to 3.53. But conversion told a different story. The Devils scored twice from low-danger spots—plays that most goalies stop. They converted zero of five high-danger attempts. Nashville, meanwhile, couldn't convert its high-danger opportunities, underperforming their 3.53 expected goals by 1.53 goals.
Goaltending decided the game. J. Markstrom (NJD) saved 1.53 goals above expected. J. Annunen (NSH) stopped all five high-danger shots but allowed two from low-danger territory.
Nico Hischier ended it 42 seconds into overtime, firing a slap shot from the top of the circles. The Devils' rush-attack edge proved decisive: they scored three goals on 34 rush chances, the only metric that mattered in a night both teams left opportunities on the table.
