The Islanders won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Islanders won 2–1 despite being outchanced, because I. Sorokin played exceptionally well while the Rangers squandered their opportunities. The Rangers created a slight edge in expected goals (2.67–2.59) and dominated high-danger chances (6–2), but scored only once, underperforming their xG by 1.67 goals. Sorokin, by contrast, saved 1.67 goals above expected, stopping all 6 high-danger shots at 100% SV.
The Rangers' inefficiency was brutal. They generated 0 goals from 6 high-danger chances—a conversion rate that won't repeat. They also created 5 rebound opportunities and converted none. Meanwhile, the Islanders scored twice from low-danger spots, the kind of luck that requires an opposing goaltender to fail. J. Quick (19/21, 0.905 SV%) actually played fine; Sorokin (20/21, 0.952 SV%) simply played better.
Mika Zibanejad's slap shot from the top of the circles in the third period gave the Rangers their one goal at 2:48, but it wasn't enough. The Islanders controlled the result through a combination of Sorokin's brilliance and New York's inability to finish despite multiple clear-cut chances.
The shot-attempt battle finished even at 21–21. The high-danger-chance disparity—6–2 in the Rangers' favor—suggested they should have won this game. That they didn't speaks to Sorokin's performance and the Rangers' execution at the finish line.
