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← Thu, Jan 29 · the slate
Breakdown · DAL at VGK

Stars edge the Golden Knights in a shootout

Final / OTThu, Jan 29
DALDallas Stars5VGKVegas Golden Knights4
The verdict · earned

The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

DAL 5 · VGK 4
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:18 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas won 5–4 in a shootout, but the underlying play wasn't close—the Stars controlled 59% of expected goals (4.24 to 2.98) and commanded high-danger chances 11–5.

The Golden Knights squeezed out luck. They overperformed their xG by 1.02 goals despite holding just 44% of shot attempts (21–27). The Stars also beat their model by 0.76, but their quality advantage made the difference.

J. Oettinger's performance defines Dallas's edge. Facing 21 shots, he saved 17 and posted a 100% save percentage on five high-danger chances. A. Hill made 23 of 27 saves (0.852 SV%) for Vegas, solid work that couldn't overcome the volume and quality his defense surrendered.

Dallas attacked through the rush—2 goals on 27 rush opportunities—and generated five rebound chances, converting one. Vegas was lethal on the counter: 3 goals on 22 rush attempts. The quality gap remained stark: Dallas shot at 0.076 expected goals per shot versus Vegas's 0.049.

Mikko Rantanen's snap shot from the high slot in the shootout proved decisive.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Jan 29
DAL
5
VGK
4

Stars edge the Golden Knights in a shootout

Chances 4.2 – 3.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Stars earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
DAL
4.24
VGK
2.98
59% of the chances41%

The board read DAL 5, VGK 4. The chances read DAL 4.2, VGK 3.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DAL
+0.8
goals above expected
DAL4.24 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK2.98 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:37DALM. Duchene1–0
  2. P2 04:07VGKK. Kolesar1–1
  3. P2 08:46DALM. Bourque2–1
  4. P2 14:16DALM. Bourque3–1
  5. P2 16:43DALW. Johnston4–1
  6. P3 04:04VGKR. SmithSH4–2
  7. P3 13:54VGKI. Barbashev4–3
+3 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
DAL
46 shots
6
Final
85 shots
VGK
39 shots
4
DAL attackVGK attack
DAL VGK Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

46
shots · 6 in
39
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
DALVGK
3 / 11
2.47 xG
High danger
0 / 5
1.25 xG
1 / 15
1.39 xG
Medium
3 / 10
1.15 xG
0 / 30
0.38 xG
Low
1 / 46
0.58 xG

The Golden Knights went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
C
A. Hill
+0.2
VGK · 23/27
D-
J. Oettinger
−1.0
DAL · 17/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Stars edge the Golden Knights in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–7
  1. 01:37DALM. Duchene(S. Steel, J. Benn)1–0
2ndshots 9–7
  1. 04:07VGKK. Kolesar(M. Marner)1–1
  2. 08:46DALM. Bourque(R. Hintz, J. Robertson)2–1
  3. 14:16DALM. Bourque(J. Benn, S. Steel)3–1
  4. 16:43DALW. Johnston(M. Rantanen)4–1
3rdshots 6–7
  1. 04:04VGKR. Smithshorthanded(K. Kolesar)4–2
  2. 13:54VGKI. Barbashev(R. Andersson, M. Stone)4–3
  3. 19:11VGKM. Marnerpower play(T. Hertl)4–4
OTshots 3–0no goals
    SO
    1. 00:00DALJ. Robertsonpower play4–4
    2. 00:00DALM. Rantanenpower play4–4

    score reads DAL–VGK

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.24
    DAL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.8
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.006
    DAL puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    47.9%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.24Expected goals2.98
    DAL 59% of the chance quality
    27Shots on goal21
    11High-danger chances5
    56All attempts (Corsi)61
    Adjusted for score: DAL 43% · VGK 57%
    Faceoffs · VGK won50%off52%neu50%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    DAL3 / 11 · 2.47 xG
    VGK0 / 5 · 1.25 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    DAL1 / 15 · 1.39 xG
    VGK3 / 10 · 1.15 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    DAL0 / 30 · 0.38 xG
    VGK1 / 46 · 0.58 xG

    VGK went 3-for-10 from medium danger on 1.15 expected goals — 1.9 above expected.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    DAL
    5 G · 4.24 xG · +0.8
    VGK
    4 G · 2.98 xG · +1.0
    0123456

    DAL finished +0.8 against expected, VGK +1.0.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    DAL
    WRIST1/28
    SNAP3/9
    SLAP0/2
    BACKHAND0/0
    TIP IN0/2
    DEFLECTED0/1
    BAT0/1
    OTHER0/13
    VGK
    WRIST3/17
    SNAP1/7
    SLAP0/5
    BACKHAND0/6
    TIP IN0/2
    DEFLECTED0/0
    BAT0/0
    OTHER0/24
    DAL
    VGK
    Off the rush
    2 G on 27
    2.72 xG
    3 G on 22
    2.33 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 5
    0.66 xG
    0 G on 1
    0.09 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: DAL went 1-for-28, VGK 3-for-17. VGK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Oettinger
    DAL · 17/21 · .810
    -1.0
    saved above expected
    D-
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/51.3+1.3
    Medium3/101.1-1.9
    Low1/460.6-0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    A. Hill
    VGK · 23/27 · .852
    +0.2
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger3/112.5-0.5
    Medium1/151.4+0.4
    Low0/300.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    85 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    DAL
    46 shots
    6
    Final
    85 shots
    VGK
    39 shots
    4
    DAL attackVGK attack
    DAL VGK Goal

    Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

    Each club shoots toward its own end — DAL left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    M. Marner
    #93 · R · VGK
    1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:23 on ice
    M. Bourque
    #22 · C · DAL
    2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 17:09 on ice · +1
    S. Steel
    #18 · C · DAL
    0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 16:15 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Thu, Jan 29
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:17 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    Vegas takes 55% win probability and a projected 2.2–2.5 scoreline. The model sees an edge in territorial control and underlying shot quality.

    The Golden Knights own the even-strength play: 54.0% xG to Dallas's 51.0%. Volume follows: Vegas controls 52.0% Corsi, meaning the puck lives in Dallas's half. That's not a razor-thin edge—it's sustained dominance.

    The kicker is regression. Vegas runs a 0.983 PDO, meaning they're playing cold relative to the quality they generate. Dallas sits at 1.024, running hot on the strength of elite finishing. Expect the Golden Knights to climb closer to their underlying performance while Dallas normalizes downward—a natural hedge on both ends.

    Jason Robertson anchors Dallas's attack: 0.96 xG per 60, 25 goals, 21 assists, and a 12.4% shooting rate. He's the focal point Vegas must manage. Michael Bunting operates at a smaller scale (8 goals, 14 assists, 0.83 xG/60) but at a torrid 7.6% shooting rate, a marker of unsustainable finishing that could reverse.

    On the Vegas side, Brandon Saad is likely inactive, removing a 0.91 xG/60 producer from the equation. Tomas Hertl becomes the secondary generator: 0.88 xG/60, 5 goals, 17 assists, shooting at 4.3%. Without Saad's presence, Hertl carries more offensive load than usual.

    Dallas has a defensive vulnerability in Tyler Myers. Vegas's 52.0% Corsi exploits exactly that—volume and positioning stress weak spots. Rasmus Andersson presents a similar liability for Vegas, a target Dallas will probe on limited opportunities.

    Both teams sit at 0% on high-danger goals and rebound conversion—unusual, and a signal that neither has found garbage offense. This game settles on primary scoring and chance quality, not opportunistic volume.

    The model leans Vegas because underlying performance predicts outcomes better than current PDO luck. Dallas has overperformed. Vegas hasn't. That gap closes.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    VGK 55%
    55%
    VGK
    Model favorite
    45%
    55%
    DAL50VGK

    VGK by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score DAL 2.2–2.5 VGK; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    DAL← edge
    edge →VGK
    51.0%54.0%
    47.0%52.0%
    2.362.52
    2.292.11
    2.072.12
    1.682.10
    1.0240.983

    VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.024 vs 0.983) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 0–10
    DAL
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    VGK
    6-3-1
    +8 GD · 1d rest
    1.024
    DAL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    DAL
    Expected in goal
    —
    no game on file

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    VGK
    Expected in goal
    A. Schmid
    back-to-back.885 last start
    Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    DAL
    Jason Robertson25G 21A
    0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh
    Michael Bunting8G 14A
    0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page