The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.98–2.30 and won anyway.
Seattle won a game the Maple Leafs deserved to win. The Kraken pulled out a 5-2 victory while generating only 37% of expected goals at 5v5, losing the xG battle 2.30–3.98. Toronto had the better play, the better chances—and the worse result.
Seattle controlled the scoreboard through sheer efficiency. They absorbed a 22-to-31 shot-attempt disadvantage and converted high-danger chances at an impossible rate: 3 goals on 5 such chances versus Toronto's 0-for-5. The Kraken also struck 3 times on the rush and buried 2 goals from low-danger spots that no goaltender expects to stop.
J. Daccord saved 1.98 goals above expected—the margin between a competitive game and a rout. A. Stolarz stopped 17 of 21, but his workload fell well short of what his underlying metrics earned; he underperformed his xG concession by 1.70. Toronto's collapse was not their goaltender's fault. It was that they played the better game without finishing it.
The Maple Leafs' precision broke down under pressure. Despite 63% of expected goals and 6 rebound opportunities, they converted only 2 goals—both from low-percentage areas. That underperformance by 1.98 goals against xG doesn't survive often. The Kraken, by contrast, overperformed by 2.70, riding finishing or fortune to a win that left their underlying numbers deep in the red.
Jared McCann's wrist shot from the wing (17:23, third period) was the turning point, but Seattle had already stolen a script Toronto wrote first.
