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← Sat, Jan 31 · the slate
Breakdown · LAK at PHI

Kings edge the Flyers in overtime

Final / OTSat, Jan 31
LAKLos Angeles Kings3PHIPhiladelphia Flyers2
The verdict · coin flip

The Kings won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

LAK 3 · PHI 2
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:21 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Flyers dominated the underlying numbers—2.93 expected goals to Los Angeles's 2.70—and lost anyway. D. Kuemper's performance explained why.

Philadelphia scored 2 goals on 2.93 xG, a 0.93-goal miss that doomed them. D. Kuemper posted a 0.905 save percentage—nearly a full goal above expected—while D. Vladar finished at 0.857, a gap that proved decisive in a one-goal defeat.

Both teams finished even on shot attempts (21 each) and high-danger chances (5 each). On the rush, both converted at identical rates: 2 goals apiece on 21 and 23 chances respectively. Philadelphia crashed harder for rebounds—three opportunities, zero conversions—while Los Angeles generated four and buried one.

Quinton Byfield ended it at 02:48 of overtime, a snap shot from the high slot.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Jan 31
LAK
3
PHI
2

Kings edge the Flyers in overtime

Chances 2.7 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Kings took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
LAK
2.70
PHI
2.93
48% of the chances52%

The board read LAK 3, PHI 2. The chances read LAK 2.7, PHI 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
LAK
+0.3
goals above expected
LAK2.70 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
PHI2.93 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 03:10LAKA. Kempe1–0
  2. P1 07:08LAKA. Kempe2–0
  3. P2 00:39PHIT. ZegrasPP2–1
  4. P3 00:25PHIT. Konecny2–2
  5. OT 02:48LAKQ. Byfield3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
LAK
37 shots
3
Final
77 shots
PHI
40 shots
2
LAK attackPHI attack
LAK PHI Goal
37
shots · 3 in
40
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
LAKPHI
1 / 5
1.11 xG
High danger
1 / 5
1.02 xG
1 / 7
0.91 xG
Medium
0 / 11
1.33 xG
1 / 45
0.68 xG
Low
1 / 35
0.58 xG

High-danger looks: LAK 1 of 5, PHI 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
D. Kuemper
+0.9
LAK · 19/21
D
D. Vladar
−0.3
PHI · 18/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Kings edge the Flyers in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–6
  1. 03:10LAKA. Kempe(A. Laferriere, C. Perry)1–0
  2. 07:08LAKA. Kempe(C. Perry)2–0
2ndshots 4–10
  1. 00:39PHIT. Zegraspower play(B. Brink, T. Konecny)2–1
3rdshots 6–5
  1. 00:25PHIT. Konecny(R. Ristolainen, N. Grebenkin)2–2
OTshots 1–0
  1. 02:48LAKQ. Byfield(A. Kempe, D. Doughty)3–2

score reads LAK–PHI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.70
LAK chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.3
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.013
LAK puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
52.8%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.70Expected goals2.93
PHI 52% of the chance quality
21Shots on goal21
5High-danger chances5
57All attempts (Corsi)51
Adjusted for score: LAK 50% · PHI 50%
Faceoffs · PHI won53%off65%neu42%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
LAK1 / 5 · 1.11 xG
PHI1 / 5 · 1.02 xG
Medium dangermid-range
LAK1 / 7 · 0.91 xG
PHI0 / 11 · 1.33 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
LAK1 / 45 · 0.68 xG
PHI1 / 35 · 0.58 xG

PHI went 0-for-11 from medium danger on 1.33 expected goals — 1.3 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
LAK
3 G · 2.70 xG · +0.3
PHI
2 G · 2.93 xG · -0.9
01234

LAK finished +0.3 against expected, PHI -0.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
LAK
WRIST0/12
SNAP3/18
SLAP0/3
TIP IN0/2
BACKHAND0/2
BAT0/0
OTHER0/20
PHI
WRIST1/23
SNAP0/6
SLAP0/4
TIP IN1/4
BACKHAND0/2
BAT0/1
OTHER0/11
LAK
PHI
Off the rush
2 G on 23
1.67 xG
2 G on 21
1.98 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 4
0.83 xG
0 G on 3
0.42 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: LAK went 0-for-12, PHI 1-for-23. LAK scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
D. Kuemper
LAK · 19/21 · .905
+0.9
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/51.0+0.0
Medium0/111.3+1.3
Low1/350.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Vladar
PHI · 18/21 · .857
-0.3
saved above expected
D
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/51.1+0.1
Medium1/70.9-0.1
Low1/450.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

77 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
LAK
37 shots
3
Final
77 shots
PHI
40 shots
2
LAK attackPHI attack
LAK PHI Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — LAK left, PHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
A. Kempe
#9 · R · LAK
2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 18:36 on ice · +3
T. Konecny
#11 · R · PHI
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 23:59 on ice
C. Perry
#10 · R · LAK
0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 17:34 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Jan 31
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:20 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.3–2.3 game with the Flyers at 50% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The Kings have seized recent momentum, going 4-3-3 over their last 10. The Flyers are scuffling at -18 goal differential over the same stretch; the Kings, though slightly better, still sit at -7. Both teams are in the red, but LAK's points pace offers a sliver of urgency.

The real separation lives in underlying possession. Over the season, the Kings drive a 52.0% Corsi rate against Philadelphia's 48.0%—territorial dominance that shows even in expected goals (LAK 52.0% xG%, PHI 51.0% xG%). Both PDOs sit near league average (LAK 1.002, PHI 1.008), meaning neither team is sustaining over- or under-performance. The Kings have earned their edge.

Goaltending introduces the only true variable. S. Ersson plays on a back-to-back, as does D. Kuemper. One could be rested or both could be depleted. A tired starter or backup appearance shifts a close projection significantly.

Three forwards will determine the margin. Alex Laferriere (16G 18A) generates 0.87 xG/60 with 2 high-danger goals while shooting at an unsustainable 9.9%. Owen Tippett mirrors him almost exactly: 19G 18A, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 12.1% shooting. Christian Dvorak adds depth at 12G 21A, 0.81 xG/60, 3 HD goals, 11.2% shooting. All three are running ahead of their underlying chances—regression is inevitable. Jared Wright (0G 4A, 0.83 xG/60) carries identical underlying production without the goals, a forward waiting for a run of fortune.

The Kings' Corsi advantage suggests they'll impose their pace. If goaltending holds and possession translates to scoring, Los Angeles wins. If shooting luck crumbles and Philadelphia steals high-danger chances, the Flyers escape instead. The model, correctly, calls it dead even.

Players to Watch

LAK

  • Alex Laferriere — 0.87 xG/60, 16G 18A, 2 HD goals, 9.9% shooting
  • Jared Wright — 0.83 xG/60, 0G 4A

PHI

  • Owen Tippett — 0.88 xG/60, 19G 18A, 2 HD goals, 12.1% shooting
  • Christian Dvorak — 0.81 xG/60, 12G 21A, 3 HD goals, 11.2% shooting
What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

PHI 51%
50%
PHI
Model favorite
50%
50%
LAK50PHI

PHI by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score LAK 2.3–2.3 PHI; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
LAK← edge
edge →PHI
52.0%51.0%
52.0%48.0%
2.422.26
2.202.20
1.851.96
1.711.82
1.0021.008

LAK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.002 vs 1.008) says PHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
LAK
4-3-3
-7 GD · 1d rest
PHI
2-7-1
-18 GD · 1d rest
1.002
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.008
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • S. Ersson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • D. Kuemper is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Kings are the hotter team by points pace (4-3-3 in their last 10).
  • The Flyers are underwater at -18 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
LAK
Expected in goal
D. Kuemper
back-to-back.903 last start
Backup Darcy Kuemper · -5.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

PHI
Expected in goal
S. Ersson
back-to-back.750 last start
Backup Dan Vladar · +13.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
LAK
Alex Laferriere16G 18A
0.87 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.9% sh
Jared Wright0G 4A
0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 0.0% sh
PHI
Owen Tippett19G 18A
0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh
Christian Dvorak12G 21A
0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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