Flames run the Sharks off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Flames earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
The Flames beat the Sharks 3-2, but the underlying numbers tell a starker story. Calgary dominated expected goals 5.82 to 3.37, holding 63% of shot attempts and high-danger chances (10 to 4). A one-goal final margin obscures that gulf.
The scoreline stayed tight because both teams underperformed their xG: the Flames by 2.82 goals, San Jose by 1.37. A. Nedeljkovic saved 2.82 goals above expected, stopping all 10 high-danger chances he faced. Yet his elite performance wasn't enough. Calgary's 0-for-10 finish on high-danger chances is unsustainable, but M. Frost (1G, 1A) and M. Weegar (1A) made the difference.
Joel Farabee's backhander from the doorstep (6:53, third period) proved decisive.
The danger ladder
CGY went 0-for-10 from high danger on 2.68 expected goals — 2.7 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
SJS finished -1.4 against expected, CGY -2.8 — A. Nedeljkovic (SJS) saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: SJS went 1-for-16, CGY 0-for-24. SJS scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
- A. Nedeljkovic (SJS) stopped 2.8 goals above expected.
- CGY couldn't convert — 0/10 on high-danger chances. That won't happen often.
- SJS was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 24 rush chances.
- CGY created 10 rebound opportunities (2 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- CGY underperformed xG by 2.8 — wasted quality chances.
- A. Nedeljkovic (SJS) saved 2.8 goals above expected — stole the show.
- A. Nedeljkovic was a wall on HD chances — 100% SV on 10 high-danger shots.