The Predators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Nashville dominated the underlying metrics—62% of expected goals (5.82–3.51), 58% of shot attempts (42–30 on goal)—but won just 4-3. I. Sorokin's 1.82 goals saved above expected explained the gap between dominance and a narrow scoreline.
The numbers broke entirely Nashville's way otherwise. High-danger chances went 10–5, with New York converting zero (0 for 5) while Nashville scored two from low-danger spots. J. Saros answered with a 100% save rate on five high-danger looks. Both teams thrived on the rush—New York scoring three times on 27 attempts, Nashville four on 35—a sign the game opened up despite Nashville's territorial control.
Roman Josi's wrist shot from the top of the circles (third period, 18:46) proved decisive. Nashville generated eight rebound opportunities but buried none, a critical miss when controlling the shot map this thoroughly. Without I. Sorokin's 1.82 goals above expected, the score would have reflected the domination.