The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Senators rolled past the Devils 4-1, and the underlying numbers vindicated the scoreboard entirely: Ottawa controlled 69% of 5v5 expected goals (4.31–1.92).
This wasn't a close game at any level. The Senators held 56% of shot attempts (34–27), and the quality gap was even starker: they generated far more dangerous chances, owning 0.080 expected goals per shot versus New Jersey's 0.033. The edge in high-danger chances—nine to three—reflected that dominance.
Shane Pinto's wrist shot from the high slot at 18:41 of the third period marked the turning point.
Where the Devils showed any fight was in their own chance creation. New Jersey generated higher-quality looks than their shot total suggests—they finished with 1.92 expected goals on just 27 attempts. But the goaltending split proved decisive. J. Allen made 30 of 33 saves with a 0.909 save percentage, outperforming expectations by 1.31 goals. L. Ullmark was nearly flawless: 26 of 27 saves at 0.963, plus 0.92 goals over expected.
Ottawa's dominance came from depth and execution. The Senators were lethal off the rush—three goals on 27 rush chances—and their power play was dominant: two goals on five attempts. They crashed the net, creating three rebound opportunities and converting one.