The Canadiens won 4–2 despite the Sabres' 55% shot-attempt advantage—a result that hinged entirely on goaltending and shot quality.

Montreal's underlying numbers told a different story than the scoreboard. Buffalo recorded 38 shot attempts to Montreal's 31 and held a 5.49–5.24 expected-goals edge. The Sabres generated 10 high-danger chances to the Canadiens' 8. By the usual metrics, Buffalo dominated.

Montreal didn't—not even close. The Sabres wasted a superior position: they underperformed their xG by 3.49 goals, a massive shortfall that exposed the gulf between shot volume and execution. Buffalo created seven rebound opportunities; none converted. Montreal's shot quality compensated—0.099 xG per shot versus Buffalo's 0.071. The Canadiens scored three goals on rush chances despite the overall possession disadvantage.

J. Dobes saved 3.5 goals above expected on 36 saves with a 0.947 save percentage. On high-danger chances alone, he stopped 90% of Buffalo's 10 shots from the prime scoring areas, the kind of performance that swallows small margins. A. Lyon allowed 2.24 goals above expected—respectable in a losing effort but insufficient when his team controlled the game.

The Canadiens proved the principle: fewer, better chances and elite goaltending beat volume and attempt count. Buffalo's possession dominance couldn't overcome Montreal's net-minding and accuracy. That contradiction—55% attempts but a 4–2 defeat—was the entire game.

This is pick'em territory: the model gives Buffalo a 54% edge and projects a 2.5–2.7 goal margin.

Both teams occupy nearly identical possession terrain. Montreal owns 48.0% expected goal share at 5v5 while Buffalo sits at 50.0%, and they're matched at 49.0% Corsi both ways. The underlying play is a dead heat.

Neither team is sustainable. Montreal's 1.018 PDO and Buffalo's 1.020 run hot; regression will touch both. Bank on a goalie grinding through a back-to-back—A. Lyon for Montreal, J. Dobes for Buffalo—or a tired starter if the backup doesn't get the nod.

Montreal leans on Cole Caufield, who generates 0.97 xG per 60 and has buried 33 goals on 20.0% shooting with just one from high-danger area. That's overperformance that will normalize. Oliver Kapanen feeds shots at 0.83 xG/60 and has cashed in 19 goals on 17.8% shooting, another hot streak begging for comedown. The Montreal offense has misfired on rebounds and high-danger chances alike—both at 0%—meaning they're living on conversion variance, not volume.

Buffalo counters with Jason Zucker (1.07 xG/60, 6 HD goals among 14 total, 15.1% shooting) and Josh Doan (1.01 xG/60, 2 HD goals among 15 total, 11.5% shooting). Zucker leans into high-danger work; Doan scatters his chances more widely. Buffalo's HD goal rate and rebound rate also sit at 0%, a mirror inefficiency.

Defensively, Montreal's Mike Matheson is the weak link; Buffalo's Jack Quinn is theirs. If either is exploited, it could tip a narrow game.

The model is right to call this a coin flip. Both teams possess at identical rates, both are running unsustainably hot, both face tired goaltending. The only edge is variance—which team's hot streak survives another night, and which regresses. No amount of xG will tell you that.