The Canadiens won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Canadiens won 4–2 despite the Sabres' 55% shot-attempt advantage—a result that hinged entirely on goaltending and shot quality.
Montreal's underlying numbers told a different story than the scoreboard. Buffalo recorded 38 shot attempts to Montreal's 31 and held a 5.49–5.24 expected-goals edge. The Sabres generated 10 high-danger chances to the Canadiens' 8. By the usual metrics, Buffalo dominated.
Montreal didn't—not even close. The Sabres wasted a superior position: they underperformed their xG by 3.49 goals, a massive shortfall that exposed the gulf between shot volume and execution. Buffalo created seven rebound opportunities; none converted. Montreal's shot quality compensated—0.099 xG per shot versus Buffalo's 0.071. The Canadiens scored three goals on rush chances despite the overall possession disadvantage.
J. Dobes saved 3.5 goals above expected on 36 saves with a 0.947 save percentage. On high-danger chances alone, he stopped 90% of Buffalo's 10 shots from the prime scoring areas, the kind of performance that swallows small margins. A. Lyon allowed 2.24 goals above expected—respectable in a losing effort but insufficient when his team controlled the game.
The Canadiens proved the principle: fewer, better chances and elite goaltending beat volume and attempt count. Buffalo's possession dominance couldn't overcome Montreal's net-minding and accuracy. That contradiction—55% attempts but a 4–2 defeat—was the entire game.
