The Wild stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.77–5.22 and won anyway.
The Oilers ran the numbers and lost anyway. Minnesota beat Edmonton 7–3 despite trailing in expected goals 3.77 to 5.22—a 58–42 split in Edmonton's favor at 5v5. The Oilers took 42 shot attempts to Minnesota's 29 and generated nine high-danger chances to three. The Wild simply finished theirs.
J. Wallstedt was the difference. The Minnesota goaltender stopped 39 of 42 shots (0.929 save percentage), running 2.22 goals better than expectation. Edmonton's goalies collapsed: T. Jarry recorded 15 saves on 20 shots (0.750 save percentage, -2.40 vs expected), while C. Ingram saved 7 of 9 (-0.83). Minnesota overperformed their expected goals by 3.23; Edmonton underperformed theirs by 2.22. When goaltending variance stretches like this, the numbers stop predicting wins.
Brock Faber's wrist shot from the high slot at 14:17 of the third period marked the turning point, but the structural damage ran deeper. Minnesota scored twice from low-danger spots Oilers goalies should have stopped. Edmonton was efficient off the rush—three goals on 39 chances—yet Minnesota was more lethal: five goals on 28. The Oilers crashed the net harder, generating 11 rebound opportunities and converting zero. Minnesota created eight and buried one.
The Three Stars reflected Minnesota's dominance:
- B. Faber (MIN)—1G, 1A in 25:50
- Q. Hughes (MIN)—1G, 1A in 25:14
- J. Eriksson Ek (MIN)—1G, 1A in 17:01
Edmonton controlled possession. Minnesota controlled the game.
