Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater

Breakdown · SEA at VGK

Kraken steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

FinalSat, Jan 31

SEASeattle Kraken3 VGKVegas Golden Knights2

The verdict · stolen

The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.39–3.56 and won anyway.

SEA 3 · VGK 2

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:37 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Golden Knights controlled 60% of expected goals at 5v5, yet lost 3-2. The game hinged entirely on goaltending: J. Daccord stopped 1.56 goals above expected, while A. Schmid underperformed his xG by 0.61. Vegas generated the quality; Seattle seized the opportunity.

The Golden Knights held 57% of shot attempts (29–22 on goal) and five high-danger chances to Seattle's four. Kaapo Kakko's backhander from the slot at 03:18 of the third period turned the game. Seattle converted 2 of 3 rebound chances; Vegas created three and converted zero. On the rush, the Golden Knights scored twice on 26 chances, yet no amount of volume offset the goaltending gap.

Vegas's metrics were dominant—60% of expected goals, 57% of shot attempts, five high-danger chances—but none of it mattered. A. Schmid faced manageable looks and failed to execute. J. Daccord faced tougher ones and exceeded expectations.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 31

SEA

VGK

Kraken steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Chances 2.4 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

SEA

2.39

VGK

3.56

40% of the chances60%

The board read SEA 3, VGK 2. The chances read SEA 2.4, VGK 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

SEA

+0.6

goals above expected

SEA2.39 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

VGK3.56 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Golden Knights left 1.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 06:50SEAE. Tolvanen1–0
P1 13:04SEAJ. McCannPP2–0
P2 08:52VGKI. Barbashev2–1
P2 19:48VGKM. MarnerPP2–2
P3 03:18SEAK. Kakko3–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

SEA

35 shots

Final

78 shots

VGK

43 shots

SEA VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

SEAVGK

0 / 4

0.76 xG

High danger

1 / 5

1.17 xG

3 / 9

1.05 xG

Medium

1 / 16

1.80 xG

0 / 33

0.58 xG

Low

0 / 39

0.58 xG

High-danger looks: SEA 0 of 4, VGK 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Daccord

+1.6

SEA · 27/29

A. Schmid

−0.6

VGK · 19/22

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Kraken steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 5–8

06:50SEAE. Tolvanen(R. Winterton, C. Stephenson)1–0
13:04SEAJ. McCannpower play(V. Dunn, C. Stephenson)2–0

2ndshots 10–10

08:52VGKI. Barbashev(J. Eichel, B. Hutton)2–1
19:48VGKM. Marnerpower play(J. Eichel, T. Hertl)2–2

3rdshots 7–11

03:18SEAK. Kakko(A. Larsson)3–2

score reads SEA–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.39

SEA chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.6

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.032

SEA puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

43.4%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.39Expected goals3.56

VGK 60% of the chance quality

22Shots on goal29

4High-danger chances5

46All attempts (Corsi)60

Adjusted for score: SEA 39% · VGK 61%

Faceoffs · VGK won64%off39%neu25%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

SEA0 / 4 · 0.76 xG

VGK1 / 5 · 1.17 xG

Medium dangermid-range

SEA3 / 9 · 1.05 xG

VGK1 / 16 · 1.80 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

SEA0 / 33 · 0.58 xG

VGK0 / 39 · 0.58 xG

SEA went 3-for-9 from medium danger on 1.05 expected goals — 1.9 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

SEA

3 G · 2.39 xG · +0.6

VGK

2 G · 3.56 xG · -1.6

01234

SEA finished +0.6 against expected, VGK -1.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

SEA

WRIST1/18

SLAP0/5

SNAP1/7

TIP IN0/3

BACKHAND1/1

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/11

VGK

WRIST2/21

SLAP0/9

SNAP0/4

TIP IN0/4

BACKHAND0/3

DEFLECTED0/2

OTHER0/17

SEA

VGK

Off the rush

1 G on 21

1.75 xG

2 G on 26

2.43 xG

Off rebounds

2 G on 3

0.34 xG

0 G on 3

0.64 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: SEA went 1-for-18, VGK 2-for-21. VGK scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Daccord

SEA · 27/29 · .931

+1.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.2+0.2

Medium1/161.8+0.8

Low0/390.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Schmid

VGK · 19/22 · .864

-0.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.8+0.8

Medium3/91.1-1.9

Low0/330.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

78 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

SEA

35 shots

Final

78 shots

VGK

43 shots

SEA VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — SEA left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Eichel

#9 · C · VGK

0 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 21:59 on ice · +1

C. Stephenson

#9 · C · SEA

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 18:01 on ice

A. Larsson

#6 · D · SEA

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 22:13 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Jan 31

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:36 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas carries 59% win probability in the model's projection—a projection built on territorial dominance. The Golden Knights control at 5v5: 54.0% expected goals against Seattle's 46.0%, and their 52.0% Corsi edge dictates pace. The model projects a 2.6–2.1 expected-goals game favoring Vegas.

Seattle's PDO sits at 1.011, a sign of goal-luck running hot. Vegas at 0.983 is the opposite—running cold, due for positive regression. Both A. Hill and J. Daccord are on back-to-backs; watch for tired starters or bench rotations.

Shane Wright is Seattle's engine: 0.77 expected goals per 60, 8 goals, 4 hard-deadline chances at 10.4% shooting. Berkly Catton (0.68 xG/60, 6 goals) adds secondary offensive depth. Vegas counters with Tomas Hertl—0.88 xG/60, 5 goals—and possibly Brandon Saad, marked inactive. Saad carries 0.91 xG/60 but has only 3 goals.

Seattle records zero hard-deadline goals and zero rebound goals. Vegas mirrors that zero rate. Seattle's defensive liability is Chandler Stephenson. Vegas's is Rasmus Andersson.

The model's edge is structural. Vegas controls possession, drives shot attempts, and benefits from regression. That's why the model leans Vegas.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 59%

59%

VGK

Model favorite

41%

59%

SEA50VGK

VGK by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score SEA 2.1–2.6 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

SEA← edge

edge →VGK

46.0%54.0%

45.0%52.0%

2.132.52

2.512.11

1.872.12

1.952.10

1.0110.983

VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.011 vs 0.983) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

SEA

5-4-1

+3 GD · 1d rest

VGK

5-3-2

+5 GD · 1d rest

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
A. Hill is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Daccord is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

SEA

Expected in goal

J. Daccord

back-to-back.935 last start

Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

VGK

Expected in goal

A. Hill

back-to-back.852 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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