Kraken steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play
The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.39–3.56 and won anyway.
The underlying story
The Golden Knights controlled 60% of expected goals at 5v5, yet lost 3-2. The game hinged entirely on goaltending: J. Daccord stopped 1.56 goals above expected, while A. Schmid underperformed his xG by 0.61. Vegas generated the quality; Seattle seized the opportunity.
The Golden Knights held 57% of shot attempts (29–22 on goal) and five high-danger chances to Seattle's four. Kaapo Kakko's backhander from the slot at 03:18 of the third period turned the game. Seattle converted 2 of 3 rebound chances; Vegas created three and converted zero. On the rush, the Golden Knights scored twice on 26 chances, yet no amount of volume offset the goaltending gap.
Vegas's metrics were dominant—60% of expected goals, 57% of shot attempts, five high-danger chances—but none of it mattered. A. Schmid faced manageable looks and failed to execute. J. Daccord faced tougher ones and exceeded expectations.
The danger ladder
SEA went 3-for-9 from medium danger on 1.05 expected goals — 1.9 above expected.
Finishing vs expected
SEA finished +0.6 against expected, VGK -1.6 — J. Daccord (SEA) saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: SEA went 1-for-18, VGK 2-for-21. VGK scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
- SEA stole this one. VGK owned 60% of the xG and lost.
- J. Daccord (SEA) stopped 1.6 goals above expected.
- VGK was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 26 rush chances.
- VGK created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- SEA created 3 rebound opportunities (2 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- VGK underperformed xG by 1.6 — wasted quality chances.
- J. Daccord (SEA) saved 1.6 goals above expected — stole the show.