Hurricanes run the Kings off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Hurricanes earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
The Hurricanes won 3-2 in overtime. The underlying numbers showed they dominated play—71% of 5v5 expected goals (4.19–1.74), 72% of shot attempts (34–13), six high-danger chances to LAK's two. The scoresheet barely reflected this edge, and Forsberg is why.
Carolina's advantage was absolute. They outchanced Los Angeles decisively and scored efficiently in transition—three goals on 34 rush attempts. But they couldn't finish high-danger looks: zero goals on six attempts. A. Forsberg faced all six and stopped all six, posting a 0.912 SV% and +1.19 against expected. That's the kind of goaltending that wins games in a vacuum. Carolina had enough firepower elsewhere to overcome it anyway.
The Hurricanes underperformed their expected goals by 1.19, a rare inversion where the underlying story nearly contradicts the scoreboard. Carolina controlled play but couldn't convert when it mattered most. LAK, predictably, squeezed maximum value from minimal chances—two goals on 16 rush attempts and a save-percentage miracle in goal.
Sebastian Aho's snap shot from the top of the circles at 01:25 of overtime sealed it. S. Gostisbehere (2A in 18:41) was the offensive engine, anchoring the possession dominance that left LAK outmatched.
The danger ladder
CAR went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.32 expected goals — 1.3 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
LAK finished +0.3 against expected, CAR -1.2 — A. Forsberg (LAK) saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Snap shots carried the volume: LAK went 2-for-12, CAR 2-for-26. CAR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
- A. Forsberg (LAK) stopped 1.2 goals above expected.
- CAR couldn't convert — 0/6 on high-danger chances. That won't happen often.
- CAR was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 34 rush chances.
- LAK was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 16 rush chances.
- CAR created 5 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- A. Forsberg was a wall on HD chances — 100% SV on 6 high-danger shots.