The Lightning earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Lightning edged the Bruins 6-5 in a shootout, but their control metrics tell a different story. They owned 60% of expected goals (6.34–4.15) and 57% of shot attempts (46–34 on goal).
What kept the scoreline close was goaltending variance. A. Vasilevskiy surrendered 0.85 goals above expected, while J. Swayman stopped 1.34 above it. That nearly two-goal swing between the pipes masked how thoroughly Tampa Bay controlled play.
Rush play was the main reason Boston stayed alive. Tampa Bay scored 5 goals on 42 rush attempts; Boston matched that (5 goals on 28 attempts), converting at a rate that compensated for volume disadvantage. High-danger chances split 9–8 for Tampa, close enough to keep the game open.
Tampa Bay's power play was the deciding factor. They scored 3 times on 29 shots, generating 3.06 expected goals—a volume Boston's penalty kill couldn't contain. Neither team capitalized on rebounds; Tampa created 5 with zero conversions, Boston created 7 with zero conversions.
N. Kucherov (1G, 3A in 28:13) and B. Hagel (1G, 2A in 27:37) led Tampa's offense. M. Geekie (2G, 1A in 18:43) kept Boston competitive, but Jake Guentzel's snap shot from the slot decided it in the shootout.