The Wild earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Minnesota's dominance on the underlying numbers—63% of expected goals—barely translated to a close finish. The Wild won 4-3 in overtime, but Montreal's 1.05-goal overperformance of their xG outpaced Minnesota's 0.72-goal edge, which is why the scoreboard stayed so tight despite the gap in shot quality.
The Wild controlled the game by nearly every measure. They held 55% of shot attempts (24–20), generating 3.28 expected goals to Montreal's 1.95. The high-danger chances were dead even at 4-4, but Montreal executed at 50% on those looks—2 goals from 4 chances—while Minnesota's advantage came from elsewhere.
Minnesota was lethal on the rush, converting 4 goals on 40 rush chances. Montreal countered with 3 goals on 21 attempts, a higher-percentage rate that helped them stay in a game they had no business winning on the xG. Montreal generated higher-quality chances than their shot total suggests, and F. Gustavsson (MIN) undermined his team's dominance by allowing 1.0 more goals than expected on a lighter workload.
The turning point came at 03:38 of overtime: Kirill Kaprizov's snap shot from the top of the circles.