Predators hold off the Blues
The Predators won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The underlying story
Nashville won 6–5 despite expected goals calling this game even at 4.18–4.15. The margin came down to goaltending variance.
J. Annunen's backup performance was flawless: 13/13 saves, +1.59 vs expected. J. Saros cost Nashville 2.43 goals against his xSV%, while St. Louis's J. Hofer gave up 1.82 more than his model predicted. Both starters played below par.
Nashville created its edge in high-danger chances—9 to 6—converting 1 rebound from 5 attempts while St. Louis managed 0 from 3. Both clubs scored on the rush (Nashville 5 of 29, St. Louis 4 of 31), but Nashville's overperformance against xG reached 1.82 goals versus 0.85 for the Blues.
St. Louis held the shot advantage (34 to 28), yet Nashville's goaltending variance held. Steven Stamkos's doorstep poke in period three exemplified the kind of finishing that decides these margins.
The danger ladder
NSH went 3-for-36 from low danger on 0.58 expected goals — 2.4 above expected.
Finishing vs expected
STL finished +0.8 against expected, NSH +1.8 — J. Saros (NSH) allowed 2.4 more goals than expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: STL went 3-for-20, NSH 2-for-23. NSH scored 5 of theirs off the rush.
- J. Annunen (NSH) stopped 1.6 goals above expected.
- J. Hofer (STL) gave up 1.8 goals more than expected — well below their workload.
- Open game — 15 high-danger chances combined (NSH 9, STL 6).
- NSH scored 3 goals from low-danger spots — the opposing goalie needs to have those.
- NSH was lethal off the rush — 5 goals on 29 rush chances.
- STL was lethal off the rush — 4 goals on 31 rush chances.
- NSH created 5 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- STL created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- NSH outperformed their expected goals by 1.8 — elite finishing or lucky bounces.
- J. Annunen (NSH) saved 4.2 goals above expected — stole the show.