Motion-blurred skater in a Nashville Predators sweater

Breakdown · STL at NSH

Predators hold off the Blues

FinalMon, Feb 2

STLSt. Louis Blues5 NSHNashville Predators6

The verdict · coin flip

The Predators won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

STL 5 · NSH 6

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:44 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Nashville won 6–5 despite expected goals calling this game even at 4.18–4.15. The margin came down to goaltending variance.

J. Annunen's backup performance was flawless: 13/13 saves, +1.59 vs expected. J. Saros cost Nashville 2.43 goals against his xSV%, while St. Louis's J. Hofer gave up 1.82 more than his model predicted. Both starters played below par.

Nashville created its edge in high-danger chances—9 to 6—converting 1 rebound from 5 attempts while St. Louis managed 0 from 3. Both clubs scored on the rush (Nashville 5 of 29, St. Louis 4 of 31), but Nashville's overperformance against xG reached 1.82 goals versus 0.85 for the Blues.

St. Louis held the shot advantage (34 to 28), yet Nashville's goaltending variance held. Steven Stamkos's doorstep poke in period three exemplified the kind of finishing that decides these margins.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Feb 2

STL

NSH

Predators hold off the Blues

Chances 4.2 – 4.2Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Predators took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

STL

4.15

NSH

4.18

50% of the chances50%

The board read STL 5, NSH 6. The chances read STL 4.2, NSH 4.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NSH

+1.8

goals above expected

NSH4.18 expected · 6 scored

Expected

Scored

STL4.15 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

The Predators scored 1.8 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 04:53STLJ. Neighbours1–0
P1 09:16NSHR. O'ReillyPP1–1
P1 14:24STLP. BuchnevichPP2–1
P2 00:45STLP. Buchnevich3–1
P2 03:23STLP. Broberg4–1
P2 03:55STLC. Parayko5–1
P2 11:35NSHM. McCarron5–2

+4 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

STL

46 shots

Final

94 shots

NSH

48 shots

STL NSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 6 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

STLNSH

2 / 6

1.69 xG

High danger

3 / 9

2.16 xG

2 / 17

1.85 xG

Medium

0 / 15

1.43 xG

1 / 36

0.61 xG

Low

3 / 36

0.58 xG

The Predators buried 3 of 9 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Annunen

+4.2

NSH · 13/13

D-

J. Saros

−0.8

NSH · 16/21

+1 more on the full breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Predators hold off the Blues

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 14–9

04:53STLJ. Neighbours(J. Faulk, T. Tucker)1–0
09:16NSHR. O'Reillypower play(F. Forsberg, R. Josi)1–1
14:24STLP. Buchnevichpower play(J. Neighbours, J. Kyrou)2–1

2ndshots 14–11

00:45STLP. Buchnevich(J. Kyrou, J. Neighbours)3–1
03:23STLP. Broberg(J. Kyrou, P. Buchnevich)4–1
03:55STLC. Parayko(J. Snuggerud, P. Broberg)5–1
11:35NSHM. McCarron(M. Bunting, R. Josi)5–2
13:49NSHF. Forsberg(R. Josi, E. Haula)5–3

3rdshots 6–8

02:02NSHR. O'Reilly(J. Barron, L. Evangelista)5–4
07:14NSHS. Stamkos(L. Evangelista, R. Josi)5–5
10:23NSHS. Stamkos(B. Skjei, L. Evangelista)5–6

score reads STL–NSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.18

NSH chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.8

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.015

NSH puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

50.4%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.15Expected goals4.18

NSH 50% of the chance quality

34Shots on goal28

6High-danger chances9

59All attempts (Corsi)60

Adjusted for score: STL 46% · NSH 54%

Faceoffs · NSH won50%off59%neu52%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

STL2 / 6 · 1.69 xG

NSH3 / 9 · 2.16 xG

Medium dangermid-range

STL2 / 17 · 1.85 xG

NSH0 / 15 · 1.43 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

STL1 / 36 · 0.61 xG

NSH3 / 36 · 0.58 xG

NSH went 3-for-36 from low danger on 0.58 expected goals — 2.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

STL

5 G · 4.15 xG · +0.8

NSH

6 G · 4.18 xG · +1.8

01234567

STL finished +0.8 against expected, NSH +1.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

STL

WRIST3/20

SNAP0/13

TIP IN1/5

BACKHAND0/4

SLAP1/4

POKE0/0

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/13

NSH

WRIST2/23

SNAP0/4

TIP IN2/6

BACKHAND0/6

SLAP0/5

POKE1/2

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND1/1

OTHER0/12

STL

NSH

Off the rush

4 G on 31

3.11 xG

5 G on 29

2.37 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.51 xG

1 G on 5

1.27 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: STL went 3-for-20, NSH 2-for-23. NSH scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Hofer

STL · 22/28 · .786

-1.8

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/92.2-0.8

Medium0/151.4+1.4

Low3/360.6-2.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Annunen

NSH · 13/13 · 1.000

+4.2

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/61.7-0.3

Medium2/171.9-0.1

Low1/360.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Saros

NSH · 16/21 · .762

-0.8

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/61.7-0.3

Medium2/171.9-0.1

Low1/360.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

94 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

STL

46 shots

Final

94 shots

NSH

48 shots

STL NSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — STL left, NSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

R. Josi

#59 · D · NSH

0 G · 4 A · 1 SOG · 23:35 on ice · +2

J. Neighbours

#63 · L · STL

1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 18:28 on ice · +1

L. Evangelista

#77 · R · NSH

0 G · 3 A · 3 SOG · 17:58 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Feb 2

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:42 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a STL 2.5–2.6 NSH game with the Predators holding 52% win probability. This is as close to even money as hockey gets.

Nashville has momentum. The Predators are 5-3-2 over their last 10 games, while St. Louis has scored 9 fewer goals than it's allowed in the same span. The Blues are underwater; the Predators are trending up.

But the underlying numbers flatten that narrative. Both teams sit at 49.0% expected goals share at 5v5—statistically identical. St. Louis trails in Corsi% (48.0% to Nashville's 50.0%), a sign it's being hemmed in slightly, but the margin is marginal. Their PDO values are nearly identical (1.000 vs 0.992), suggesting neither team is running hot or cold relative to shot quality.

Goaltending adds uncertainty. J. Saros and J. Binnington are each on back-to-backs, raising the possibility of a backup start or a tired starter. Fatigue can differentiate teams with identical underlying metrics.

Players to Watch

St. Louis

Jimmy Snuggerud: 0.86 xG/60, 15G 22A, 2 HD goals, 11.9% shooting
Dylan Holloway: 0.82 xG/60, 13G 24A, 1 HD goal, 10.8% shooting

Nashville

Zachary L'Heureux: 0.85 xG/60, 4G 0A, 1 HD goal, 16.0% shooting
Filip Forsberg: 0.80 xG/60, 23G 17A, 4 HD goals, 13.6% shooting

Forsberg and Snuggerud carry the offensive weight. L'Heureux's 16.0% shooting rate on 4 goals presents upside. St. Louis's defensive liability is Snuggerud; Nashville's is Jonathan Marchessault.

Underlying play favors neither team—the Predators have recent form, the Blues have foundational skill. Special teams, goaltending, and execution in high-danger moments become the deciders. Fifty-two percent for Nashville is right.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NSH 52%

52%

NSH

Model favorite

48%

52%

STL50NSH

NSH by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score STL 2.5–2.6 NSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

STL← edge

edge →NSH

49.0%49.0%

48.0%50.0%

2.342.48

2.402.58

2.001.84

2.122.21

1.0000.992

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.000 vs 0.992) says STL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

STL

3-6-1

-9 GD · 1d rest

NSH

5-3-2

-3 GD · 1d rest

1.000

STL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.992

NSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

J. Saros is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Binnington is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Predators are the hotter team by points pace (5-3-2 in their last 10).
The Blues are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

STL

Expected in goal

J. Binnington

back-to-back.818 last start

Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NSH

Expected in goal

J. Saros

back-to-back.900 last start

Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

STL

Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A

0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh

Dylan Holloway13G 24A

0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh

NSH

Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A

0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh

Filip Forsberg23G 17A

0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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