The Blackhawks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.48–2.67 and won anyway.
Chicago's 6–3 victory masked a lopsided advantage for San Jose. The Blackhawks controlled just 43% of expected goals (2.67–3.48), yet prevailed because S. Knight's 0.889 save percentage (24/27) transformed what should have been a deficit into a convincing win.
The Blackhawks' path to victory ran through efficiency on the rush. They scored five goals on 24 attempts, a conversion rate San Jose matched at two goals from 26 chances—equivalent finishing in a game separated by goaltending alone. I. Mikheyev (1G, 3A in 16:14) and R. Donato (2G, 2A in 13:53) anchored Chicago's output through precision placement.
Two Sharks goalies failed simultaneously. Y. Askarov stopped 6 of 10 (0.600 SV%), underperforming expected saves by 2.43. A. Nedeljkovic, in limited action, surrendered 0.90 additional goals above expectation. Their combined collapse negated San Jose's 57% high-danger advantage (6–5) and five rebound opportunities without a conversion—evidence of urgency that counted for nothing.
The Sharks generated the superior game. Chicago converted opportunity and goaltending into a scoreline that expected goals would call improbable. On a night like this, expected goals theory bends to the scoreboard.
