The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
E. Merzlikins' exceptional goaltending turned a competitive underlying matchup into a blowout. The Devils generated 2.57 expected goals but were blanked by a goalie playing 2.57 goals above expected — the game's decisive margin.
Columbus actually dominated the metrics. They controlled 57% of 5v5 xG (3.41–2.57), converted two rush chances into goals across 22 attempts, and generated higher-quality looks at 0.071 xG per shot versus New Jersey's 0.049. They had six high-danger chances to the Devils' two.
But New Jersey wasn't completely overrun by volume. The Devils held 48% of shot attempts (24–26) and created legitimate scoring opportunities — just none that found the net against Merzlikins.
M. Olivier's shot from the high slot early in the third period (P3, 16:00) served as the turning point, a moment when Columbus' control crystallized into separation on the scoreboard. Olivier finished with two goals in just over 14 minutes; Z. Werenski added an assist across 23:11; C. Coyle chipped in another setup in 16:35.
J. Markstrom stopped 23 of 25 shots and actually outperformed expected performance slightly (+1.41 vs xG), so the loss falls squarely on his team's reduced volume and quality, not goaltending. Columbus' 3-0 scoreline was real — but Merzlikins made it more decisive than the underlying play suggested.
