Motion-blurred skater in a Philadelphia Flyers sweater

Breakdown · WSH at PHI

Flyers hold off the Capitals

FinalTue, Feb 3

WSHWashington Capitals2 PHIPhiladelphia Flyers4

The verdict · earned

The Flyers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WSH 2 · PHI 4

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:50 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Philadelphia's 4-2 win over Washington masked a sizable control advantage. The Flyers held 58% of expected goals at 5v5 (4.14–2.95), with shots split 22-28 in Washington's favor—a gap that reflected quality over volume. Philadelphia generated looks at 0.086 xG per shot while the Capitals managed 0.046.

Washington's looks were higher-quality than their shot total suggested, yet the team underperformed its expected goals by 0.95. C. Stevenson (0.857 SV%) couldn't overcome the deficit. D. Vladar (26 of 28, 0.929 SV%) didn't need to work as hard.

Philadelphia converted efficiently. The Flyers scored twice from low-danger areas—opportunities the opposing goalie is expected to deny. They held the high-danger advantage 7–4 and capitalized on two of 19 rush chances. R. Ristolainen's wrist shot from the high slot at 19:43 of the third set the tone. Washington had decent looks but lacked the conversion rate to stay competitive.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Feb 3

WSH

PHI

Flyers hold off the Capitals

Chances 3.0 – 4.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Flyers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

WSH

2.95

PHI

4.14

42% of the chances58%

The board read WSH 2, PHI 4. The chances read WSH 3.0, PHI 4.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

PHI

−0.1

goals above expected

PHI4.14 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

WSH2.95 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 05:56PHIO. Tippett0–1
P2 04:45PHIC. Grundstrom0–2
P2 08:12WSHA. ProtasSH1–2
P3 02:40WSHA. Beauvillier2–2
P3 14:37PHIJ. DrysdalePP2–3
P3 19:43PHIR. RistolainenEN2–4

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

WSH

39 shots

Final

75 shots

PHI

36 shots

WSH PHI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

WSHPHI

1 / 4

0.99 xG

High danger

1 / 7

1.91 xG

1 / 11

1.35 xG

Medium

1 / 16

1.93 xG

0 / 49

0.61 xG

Low

2 / 25

0.30 xG

High-danger looks: WSH 1 of 4, PHI 1 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

C. Stevenson

+1.1

WSH · 18/21

B+

D. Vladar

+0.9

PHI · 26/28

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Flyers hold off the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 11–7

05:56PHIO. Tippett(T. Sanheim, M. Michkov)0–1

2ndshots 7–6

04:45PHIC. Grundstrom(N. Deslauriers, R. Ristolainen)0–2
08:12WSHA. Protasshorthanded(A. Beauvillier)1–2

3rdshots 10–9

02:40WSHA. Beauvillier(J. Sourdif, T. van Riemsdyk)2–2
14:37PHIJ. Drysdalepower play(T. Zegras, T. Konecny)2–3
19:43PHIR. Ristolainenempty net(T. Konecny)2–4

score reads WSH–PHI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.14

PHI chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.1

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.052

PHI puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

42.9%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.95Expected goals4.14

PHI 58% of the chance quality

28Shots on goal22

4High-danger chances7

64All attempts (Corsi)48

Adjusted for score: WSH 60% · PHI 40%

Faceoffs · PHI won42%off67%neu47%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

WSH1 / 4 · 0.99 xG

PHI1 / 7 · 1.91 xG

Medium dangermid-range

WSH1 / 11 · 1.35 xG

PHI1 / 16 · 1.93 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

WSH0 / 49 · 0.61 xG

PHI2 / 25 · 0.30 xG

PHI went 2-for-25 from low danger on 0.30 expected goals — 1.7 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

WSH

2 G · 2.95 xG · -0.9

PHI

4 G · 4.14 xG · -0.1

012345

WSH finished -0.9 against expected, PHI -0.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

WSH

WRIST1/21

SNAP1/8

SLAP0/4

BACKHAND0/4

TIP IN0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/25

PHI

WRIST2/15

SNAP0/10

SLAP1/4

BACKHAND1/3

TIP IN0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/12

WSH

PHI

Off the rush

1 G on 23

1.80 xG

2 G on 19

2.32 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 1

0.21 xG

0 G on 4

0.51 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 1-for-21, PHI 2-for-15. PHI scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Stevenson

WSH · 18/21 · .857

+1.1

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/71.9+0.9

Medium1/161.9+0.9

Low2/250.3-1.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Vladar

PHI · 26/28 · .929

+0.9

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/41.0-0.0

Medium1/111.4+0.3

Low0/490.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

75 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

WSH

39 shots

Final

75 shots

PHI

36 shots

WSH PHI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, PHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

R. Ristolainen

#55 · D · PHI

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 20:41 on ice · +2

T. Konecny

#11 · R · PHI

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 19:39 on ice · +1

A. Beauvillier

#72 · R · WSH

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 17:51 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Feb 3

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:49 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Models project a 2.4-2.6 game with the Flyers favored at 53% win probability — this is a genuine coin flip.

Both teams are struggling. The Flyers sit at -15 goal differential over their last 10 games; the Capitals are at -8.

On the season, the underlying metrics look comparable. Washington owns 50.0% expected goals share at 5-on-5 with a 49.0% Corsi rating. Philadelphia counters at 51.0% xG% and 48.0% Corsi%. Their PDOs tell a different story — Washington at 1.018, Philadelphia at 1.008 — suggesting the Capitals are running hot and should expect regression.

Washington's attack runs through Alex Ovechkin (0.97 xG/60, 19G 17A, 13.8% shooting, 2 high-danger goals) and Anthony Beauvillier (0.89 xG/60, 14G 9A, 10.4% shooting, 2 HD goals). Philadelphia counters with Owen Tippett (0.88 xG/60, 19G 18A, 12.1% shooting, 2 HD goals) and Christian Dvorak (0.81 xG/60, 12G 21A, 11.2% shooting, 3 HD goals).

Washington's defensive weak link is Declan Chisholm; Philadelphia's is Christian Dvorak. Neither team has converted high-danger or rebound chances — both sit at 0% on these metrics.

The matchup hinges on star power and recent trajectory. Washington has the elite scorer but recent form concerns. Philadelphia has the underlying advantage in shot quality but has bled goals. At coin-flip odds, that uncertainty appropriately captures the fundamental tension.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

PHI 53%

53%

PHI

Model favorite

47%

53%

WSH50PHI

PHI by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WSH 2.4–2.6 PHI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH← edge

edge →PHI

50.0%51.0%

49.0%48.0%

2.622.26

2.622.20

2.181.96

1.791.82

1.0181.008

WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.008) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

WSH

4-5-1

-8 GD · 3d rest

PHI

2-6-2

-15 GD · 3d rest

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.008

PHI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Flyers are underwater at -15 goal differential over their last 10.
The Capitals are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

WSH

Expected in goal

C. Stevenson

3 days rest.864 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

PHI

Expected in goal

D. Vladar

3 days rest.857 last start

Backup Dan Vladar · +13.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

PHI

Owen Tippett19G 18A

0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh

Christian Dvorak12G 21A

0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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