The Hurricanes stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.71–3.26 and won anyway.
The Senators dominated the Hurricanes 59% to 41% in expected goals at 5v5, yet skated off losers 4-3. This was not a fluke — it was a disciplined heist built on goaltending and efficiency.
B. Bussi saved 1.7 goals above expected, stopping 24 of 27 shots with a 100% mark on eight high-danger chances. J. Reimer, conversely, gave back 0.74 goals; the Senators went 0 for 8 on those same prime scoring areas. Shot quality and finishing split apart from shot volume.
The Hurricanes converted 3 goals off just 16 rush attempts — that's 19% efficiency on the transition, a rate that punishes flat-footed defenses. The Senators, despite owning possession and xG, scattered their firepower: two goals came from low-danger slots, which J. Reimer should have had.
Jordan Staal's snap shot from the high slot — 14:53 of the third period — was when this game tipped. Carolina never surrendered the lead.
S. Aho drove the play with 1G, 2A in 16:50, steering the rush game. J. Sanderson (1G, 1A in 23:15) and D. Cozens (2A in 19:16) led the Senators' push, but volume did not translate to verdict.
Ottawa created 11 rebound opportunities without converting any; Carolina created five and added none either. Both teams clashed at the net, but only the Hurricanes scored when it mattered. This is the xG story in reverse: control without finish, precision without possession.
