The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.84–2.97 and won anyway.
The Capitals stole a game that should have belonged to Nashville. Despite trailing 4.84–2.97 in expected goals—a 62–38 split heavily favoring the Predators—Washington won 4-2. The offense found dangerous chances when it mattered; the defense leaned on a goaltender who was simply magnificent.
L. Thompson finished with 27 saves on 29 shots (0.931 SV%), exceeding his expected save percentage by 2.84 goals. More specifically: he stopped 91% of high-danger chances, keeping Nashville's 11 dangerous opportunities from becoming a rout. The Predators couldn't capitalize on their workload; J. Annunen, meanwhile, faced 26 shots and conceded four, underperforming his xG mark by 1.03.
Washington's offense was efficient in the spots that mattered most. The Capitals generated only 3 high-danger chances to Nashville's 11, but converted at the moments it counted. On the rush, they were lethal—4 goals from 20 chances. The power play, too, was clinical: 2 goals on 8 shots with just 0.39 xG, suggesting precision rather than volume.
The turning point came early. Jakob Chychrun's snap shot from the high slot at 13:11 of the third period set the tone for a game that, by every underlying metric, the Predators should have won. Instead, Nashville's dominance in chance creation evaporated against a Capitals goaltender who was the difference.
