The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Vegas controlled this game decisively: 62% of 5v5 expected goals (4.34–2.70), sharper shot quality (0.069 xG per attempt vs. Los Angeles's 0.047), and a 6-4 result that proved dominance into the scoresheet. The Kings played the worse game and paid the price.
But both teams got exceptionally lucky. Los Angeles outscored its xG by 1.30 goals—elite finishing—yet still lost by two because Vegas overperformed its xG by 1.66. When you're the worse team and the other side gets luckier, a six-goal deficit becomes inevitable.
The Kings created work anyway. They finished 2-for-10 on the power play (0.33 xG), converting special-team opportunities despite holding only 43% of 5v5 shot attempts. On the rush, they scored three times on 24 chances. Vegas matched that with four goals on 26 rush attempts, absorbing more volume and converting at equal rates.
The goaltending exposed the ceiling. A. Hill stopped 15 of 19 (0.789 SV%) but surrendered 1.30 expected goals above his line—a gap too wide to overcome. A. Forsberg saved 19 of 24 (0.792 SV%), 0.66 goals short of expected. Both played statistically well into a losing cause. Vegas's shot quality meant even routine saves from Hill read as defeats.
The turning point arrived at 19:32 of the third period: Ivan Barbashev's wrist shot from the wing extended Vegas's lead beyond Los Angeles's reach.