The Ducks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.53–3.17 and won anyway.
Edmonton dominated expected goals by 18 percentage points—4.53 to 3.17—yet walked out with a loss. Anaheim won 6-5 by turning marginal chances into goals while Edmonton's superior setup play yielded nothing but regret.
The Ducks held 52% of shot attempts (29-27), a narrow edge that did not translate to chance quality. At 5v5, the Oilers controlled 59% of expected goals, the kind of dominance that usually produces a win. Instead, Anaheim overperformed their model by 2.83 goals—a result of clinical finishing and Edmonton's goaltending collapse.
T. Jarry (EDM) allowed 2.27 more goals than his xG suggested he should have, bleeding 20 saves on 25 shots for an 0.800 mark. L. Dostal (ANA) posted 0.815 on 22-27, stealing the goaltending battle when it mattered most. C. Ingram (EDM), thrust into relief, managed only 0.750 on a 3-4 sample.
High-danger chances split 5-7 favoring Anaheim, a rare win for the Ducks in dangerous areas. They converted 60% of their HD attempts while Edmonton managed just 43%—the difference between a heist and a collapse. Anaheim also scored twice from low-danger spots, gifts Dostal's counterpart could not afford to give.
The turning point came early: Cutter Gauthier's wrist shot from the doorstep at 18:46 of the third period set the tone for a Ducks team that refused to fold despite the possession deficit.
Anaheim's rush game proved lethal—three goals from 24 chances. Edmonton, for all their territorial control, scored three times on 35 rush attempts, squandering their speed advantage.
