Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · NYI at MTL

Islanders edge the Canadiens in overtime

Final / OTThu, Feb 26

NYINew York Islanders4 MTLMontreal Canadiens3

The verdict · earned

The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYI 4 · MTL 3

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 4:34 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders' 4-3 overtime victory understated their dominance—they controlled 56% of 5v5 expected goals (4.18–3.23) and claimed high-danger chances 7–3.

New York thrived on the rush, generating four goals from 31 attempts. Montreal scored twice from low-danger spots—opportunities that typically fail to convert—but still fell short. Both teams' power plays produced two goals on comparable looks (NYI 2 on 6 shots, 1.06 xG; MTL 2 on 8 shots, 1.17 xG).

Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored at 01:46 of overtime with a backhander from the slot.

I. Sorokin (NYI) made 22 of 25 saves (0.880 SV%). S. Montembeault (MTL) stopped 22 of 26 (0.846 SV%).

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Feb 26

NYI

MTL

Islanders edge the Canadiens in overtime

Chances 4.2 – 3.2Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Islanders earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

4.18

MTL

3.23

56% of the chances44%

The board read NYI 4, MTL 3. The chances read NYI 4.2, MTL 3.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

−0.2

goals above expected

NYI4.18 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

MTL3.23 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 12:11MTLN. Dobson0–1
P2 10:06MTLN. DobsonPP0–2
P2 17:56NYIM. SchaeferPP1–2
P2 18:51NYIM. Schaefer2–2
P3 09:11MTLC. CaufieldPP2–3
P3 18:19NYIA. LeePP3–3
OT 01:46NYIJ. Pageau4–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

43 shots

Final

79 shots

MTL

36 shots

NYI MTL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYIMTL

2 / 7

1.84 xG

High danger

1 / 3

0.97 xG

1 / 17

1.87 xG

Medium

0 / 15

1.71 xG

1 / 39

0.47 xG

Low

2 / 39

0.55 xG

The Islanders buried 2 of 7 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

I. Sorokin

+0.2

NYI · 22/25

S. Montembeault

+0.2

MTL · 22/26

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Islanders edge the Canadiens in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 5–10

12:11MTLN. Dobson(L. Hutson)0–1

2ndshots 12–8

10:06MTLN. Dobsonpower play(A. Texier, A. Newhook)0–2
17:56NYIM. Schaeferpower play(M. Barzal, C. Ritchie)1–2
18:51NYIM. Schaefer(T. DeAngelo, I. Sorokin)2–2

3rdshots 8–6

09:11MTLC. Caufieldpower play(I. Demidov, J. Slafkovský)2–3
18:19NYIA. Leepower play(B. Horvat, S. Holmstrom)3–3

OTshots 1–1

01:46NYIJ. Pageau(S. Holmstrom)4–3

score reads NYI–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.18

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.2

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.011

NYI puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

52.5%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.18Expected goals3.23

NYI 56% of the chance quality

26Shots on goal25

7High-danger chances3

63All attempts (Corsi)57

Adjusted for score: NYI 56% · MTL 44%

Faceoffs · MTL won61%off63%neu33%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI2 / 7 · 1.84 xG

MTL1 / 3 · 0.97 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI1 / 17 · 1.87 xG

MTL0 / 15 · 1.71 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI1 / 39 · 0.47 xG

MTL2 / 39 · 0.55 xG

MTL went 0-for-15 from medium danger on 1.71 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

4 G · 4.18 xG · -0.2

MTL

3 G · 3.23 xG · -0.2

012345

NYI finished -0.2 against expected, MTL -0.2.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

SNAP2/27

BACKHAND1/6

SLAP0/4

WRIST0/3

TIP IN0/2

DEFLECTED1/1

OTHER0/20

MTL

SNAP2/21

BACKHAND0/6

SLAP1/5

WRIST0/2

TIP IN0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/21

NYI

MTL

Off the rush

4 G on 31

3.50 xG

1 G on 25

2.22 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.30 xG

1 G on 3

0.73 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NYI went 2-for-27, MTL 2-for-21. NYI scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Sorokin

NYI · 22/25 · .880

+0.2

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/31.0-0.0

Medium0/151.7+1.7

Low2/390.6-1.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Montembeault

MTL · 22/26 · .846

+0.2

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/71.8-0.2

Medium1/171.9+0.9

Low1/390.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

79 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

43 shots

Final

79 shots

MTL

36 shots

NYI MTL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 25:56 on ice · +1

N. Dobson

#53 · D · MTL

2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 21:54 on ice · -2

S. Holmstrom

#10 · R · NYI

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 16:02 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Feb 26

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 4:29 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.7 goal Canadiens win with Montreal at 52% probability. This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find in the regular season.

The numbers explain why. Both teams carry identical 5v5 underlying metrics: 48.0% xG%, 49.0% Corsi%. Over the course of a season, that kind of parity produces exactly this—a genuine toss-up, decided by the margins that accumulate in small samples.

The separation appears in the conversion layer. Montreal's PDO sits at 1.018, running hot; the Islanders' is 0.993, running cold. Regression comes eventually, but tonight the advantage belongs to Montreal.

Cole Caufield is the highest-leverage player on the ice. He's at 0.97 xG/60 with 33 goals and 16 assists, shooting 20.0%—elite efficiency on elite volume. His partner Oliver Kapanen adds 0.83 xG/60 with 19 goals on 17.8% shooting; Montreal's depth scoring is both reliable and dangerous.

The Islanders counter with Anders Lee (1.20 xG/60, 9 goals, 20 assists, 2 high-danger goals) and Bo Horvat (0.87 xG/60, 18 goals on 12.8% shooting, 3 high-danger goals). Lee's underlying rate is high; his goal total reflects the value he creates. Horvat's conversion rate is sharp enough to trouble any goaltender.

Both teams show identical 0% rates on high-danger and rebound goals, which suggests either extreme defensive discipline or statistical variance in small samples. Treat these as signals, not certainties.

The Islanders' defensive weak link is Alexander Romanov; Montreal's is Mike Matheson. In a game this close, those vulnerabilities are where the other team's best forwards will press their advantage.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MTL 52%

52%

MTL

Model favorite

48%

52%

NYI50MTL

MTL by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYI 2.5–2.7 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI← edge

edge →MTL

48.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.482.41

2.692.62

1.782.24

1.941.96

0.9931.018

MTL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.018) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYI

6-4-0

+0 GD · 20d rest

MTL

6-3-1

+7 GD · 21d rest

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.018

MTL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

20 days rest.958 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL

Expected in goal

S. Montembeault

21 days rest.973 last start

Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

MTL

Cole Caufield33G 16A

0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh

Oliver Kapanen19G 12A

0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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