The Flyers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Philadelphia won the scoreboard and the underlying metrics. Expected goals finished 60-40 in the Flyers' favor (3.66–2.49), a gap that shot attempts (24–24 on goal) couldn't explain — the Flyers' chances were simply higher quality, averaging 0.069 xG per shot against New York's 0.049.
High-danger looks told the same story. The Flyers generated five to New York's two, a two-and-a-half-to-one edge that proved decisive when Matvei Michkov finished at 02:10 of overtime.
Why the Flyers prevailed. Philadelphia converted rush opportunities at a lethal rate — two goals on 22 rush chances. That precision, combined with a 5-2 high-danger advantage and superior shot quality, proved insurmountable.
Where New York fell short. Shot volume (24 attempts) masked the deeper problem: the chances lacked teeth. New York generated chances in lower-danger areas — 0.049 xG per shot against Philadelphia's 0.069 — a quality gap, not a volume problem.
In goal. S. Ersson (PHI) stopped 22 of 24 (0.917 SV%), executing his role. I. Shesterkin (NYR) was genuinely excellent, saving 21 of 24 with a +0.66 xG differential, yet Philadelphia's variety and volume still punished him. That +0.66 margin was the only edge New York could construct, and it wasn't enough.
The Flyers' efficiency on rushes and their high-danger edge proved impossible to overcome. New York had the shot count; Philadelphia had the shots that mattered.