The Blues won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
St. Louis rolled past Seattle 5-1, but the expected goals split of 3.24–3.12 revealed a game that played far closer to even than the scoreboard suggested. The Blues' four-goal margin masked an underlying contest decided entirely by goaltending and finishing variance.
The Blues controlled 57% of shot attempts (32–24 on goal) and translated their slight possession edge into elite efficiency. In the high-danger zone, they converted 4 of 6 chances—a 67% rate that turns tight edges into decisive wins. Dylan Holloway's backhander from the wing in the third period served as the turning point, extending St. Louis's advantage when the outcome was still in question.
J. Hofer saved 2.12 goals above his expected save percentage—a margin so large it accounted for the difference between a close game and a rout. P. Grubauer, meanwhile, underperformed by 0.76, a gap large enough to swing a single game. The Blues' rush attack proved particularly lethal: two goals on 28 chances, a rate that bleeds leads slowly but relentlessly.
The Kraken underperformed their expected goals by 2.1, wasting quality chances created through effective net-front pressure. They generated four rebound opportunities but converted only one—a missed opportunity to capitalize on second chances.
The Blues' overperformance (1.76 goals above xG) and Seattle's underperformance converged on the same villain: variance. Hofer's heroics and St. Louis's finishing sharpness in key moments separated what the underlying play suggested would be a one-goal game.
