The Rangers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Rangers' shootout victory masks a game that was nearly even underneath. Expected goals split 3.57–3.50 in New York's favor—barely a rounding error—yet the Penguins underperformed their xG by 1.50 goals, wasting opportunities they should have buried.
The Rangers controlled structure: 42% of shot attempts (25–34 on goal) and a 5–4 edge in high-danger chances. They were lethal in transition, scoring twice on 26 rush attempts. But the efficiency picture inverts. New York underperformed its xG by 1.6 goals despite generating nine rebound opportunities—none converted.
Pittsburgh, despite generating high-quality looks relative to their shot total, was starved by finish. A team with those chances should have won.
Both goalies outperformed expected save percentage by roughly equal margins—S. Skinner by 1.57 goals, I. Shesterkin by 1.50. The shootout rendered their excellence beside the point. Vincent Trocheck's wrist shot from the slot became the decider.
The numbers said this was a coin flip. The scoreboard went to New York. That's what a shootout is—one shot to settle everything beforehand. The Rangers made theirs. Pittsburgh didn't.
