The Sharks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
San Jose dominated possession but barely escaped with a one-goal win despite expected goals suggesting a close race. The Sharks held 58% of shot attempts and led 4.26–3.59 in xG—a marginal advantage that their 5-4 scoreline overstates.
The Sharks' 0.74-goal overperformance came from low-danger scoring. Two goals came from spots that should be goaltender saves, the kind of luck that swings close games. That luck—not dominance—was the difference.
San Jose was lethal on transition—three goals on 28 rush attempts—and crashed the net effectively, creating eight rebound opportunities and converting one. The Oilers matched that rush efficiency with three goals of their own on 23 chances, but their four rebound opportunities went begging. Edmonton's goaltending was the bottleneck: C. Ingram finished 28/33 (0.848 SV%, −0.74 vs expected), allowing soft goals that typically belong to the defense.
High-danger chances split 7–5 in San Jose's favor, but both teams found their rhythms in open ice. The Oilers had the talent to stay dangerous; E. Bouchard was everywhere (1G, 2A, 23:24), and C. McDavid ran the offense (3A, 21:34). The Sharks got crucial depth production: M. Misa notched a goal and assist in just 12:16.
Shakir Mukhamadullin's slap shot from the top of the circles (period 3, 09:27) proved the winner, a moment that crystallized what the game actually was—not dominance, but a possession battle where variance determined the outcome.