The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
New Jersey's 3-1 win masks a dominant performance: the Devils controlled 69% of 5v5 expected goals (4.96–2.22) and generated far cleaner scoring chances. The Blues' shots came from bad angles—they held 44% of attempts but managed just 0.042 expected goals per shot, compared to New Jersey's 0.083.
Goaltending papered over the gap. J. Binnington kept St. Louis within striking distance despite facing a 3-to-1 quality disadvantage, posting a +2.96 save percentage above expected. J. Markstrom (NJD) played well with a +1.22 performance, but the Devils squandered their advantage: they underperformed their xG by 1.96 goals while the Blues underperformed theirs by 1.22. When a team generates superior looks and still misses them, volume compensates—the Devils' 3 goals on 30 rush chances proved it.
Nico Hischier's wrist shot from the high slot in the third period (19:55) sealed the Devils' grip on the game. New Jersey sustained pressure with 5 rebound opportunities (converting zero) and a 69% expected-goal share—the opposite of a squeezed-out victory. They overwhelmed St. Louis structurally, then converted it.
The final shot count (26–33) tells the true story: St. Louis never generated the dangerous looks required to match a team playing suffocating defense. The expected-goal split (2.22–4.96) explains why.