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← Wed, Mar 4 · the slate
Breakdown · VGK at DET

Golden Knights edge the Red Wings in overtime

Final / OTWed, Mar 4
VGKVegas Golden Knights4DETDetroit Red Wings3
The verdict · coin flip

The Golden Knights won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

VGK 4 · DET 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 5:33 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Detroit created the better chances and failed to capitalize. The Red Wings had seven high-danger chances and converted zero, while A. Hill, Vegas's goaltender, stopped all seven he faced. Yet the underlying metrics—expected goals at 3.57–3.86 (48–52 split), shots at 26–25 (51% Detroit)—all suggested a near-even game. Two of Detroit's three goals came from low-danger spots. That's how you lose despite having the edge.

The difference materialized off the rush: both teams scored three goals there, but Detroit needed 29 chances to Vegas's 28. Tomas Hertl's wrist shot from the slot at 02:11 of overtime decided it.

M. Marner (Vegas) led with 1G, 2A. S. Edvinsson (Detroit) had 1G, 1A in 24:03. R. Andersson (Vegas) finished with 2A in 23:28.

Detroit built the framework for a win. A. Hill simply didn't let them collect on it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Mar 4
VGK
4
DET
3

Golden Knights edge the Red Wings in overtime

Chances 3.9 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Golden Knights took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
3.86
DET
3.57
52% of the chances48%

The board read VGK 4, DET 3. The chances read VGK 3.9, DET 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
VGK
+0.1
goals above expected
VGK3.86 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
DET3.57 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:50VGKR. Smith1–0
  2. P1 05:58DETE. Finnie1–1
  3. P1 15:15DETS. Edvinsson1–2
  4. P1 16:14DETA. DeBrincat1–3
  5. P3 11:37VGKI. Barbashev2–3
  6. P3 16:36VGKM. Marner3–3
  7. OT 02:11VGKT. HertlPP4–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
41 shots
4
Final
80 shots
DET
39 shots
3
VGK attackDET attack
VGK DET Goal
41
shots · 4 in
39
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKDET
2 / 7
1.59 xG
High danger
0 / 7
1.48 xG
1 / 14
1.76 xG
Medium
1 / 13
1.53 xG
1 / 37
0.52 xG
Low
2 / 32
0.56 xG

The Red Wings went 0 for 7 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
A. Hill
+0.6
VGK · 23/26
C
C. Talbot
−0.1
DET · 21/25
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Golden Knights edge the Red Wings in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–11
  1. 01:50VGKR. Smith(M. Marner, P. Dorofeyev)1–0
  2. 05:58DETE. Finnie(M. Seider, S. Edvinsson)1–1
  3. 15:15DETS. Edvinsson(A. Copp, A. DeBrincat)1–2
  4. 16:14DETA. DeBrincat(L. Raymond, A. Sandin-Pellikka)1–3
2ndshots 8–7no goals
    3rdshots 8–7
    1. 11:37VGKI. Barbashev(R. Andersson, N. Hanifin)2–3
    2. 16:36VGKM. Marner(T. Hertl, S. Theodore)3–3
    OTshots 2–1
    1. 02:11VGKT. Hertlpower play(M. Marner, R. Andersson)4–3

    score reads VGK–DET

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.86
    VGK chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.1
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.011
    VGK puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    52.7%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.86Expected goals3.57
    VGK 52% of the chance quality
    25Shots on goal26
    7High-danger chances7
    58All attempts (Corsi)52
    Adjusted for score: VGK 57% · DET 43%
    Faceoffs · DET won38%off63%neu62%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    VGK2 / 7 · 1.59 xG
    DET0 / 7 · 1.48 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    VGK1 / 14 · 1.76 xG
    DET1 / 13 · 1.53 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    VGK1 / 37 · 0.52 xG
    DET2 / 32 · 0.56 xG

    DET went 0-for-7 from high danger on 1.48 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    VGK
    4 G · 3.86 xG · +0.1
    DET
    3 G · 3.57 xG · -0.6
    012345

    VGK finished +0.1 against expected, DET -0.6.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    VGK
    WRIST3/15
    SNAP1/9
    SLAP0/8
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND0/4
    DEFLECTED0/1
    BAT0/0
    OTHER0/17
    DET
    WRIST0/12
    SNAP3/17
    SLAP0/5
    TIP IN0/2
    BACKHAND0/2
    DEFLECTED0/0
    BAT0/1
    OTHER0/13
    VGK
    DET
    Off the rush
    3 G on 28
    3.01 xG
    3 G on 29
    2.73 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 2
    0.24 xG
    0 G on 4
    0.74 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 3-for-15, DET 0-for-12. VGK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Hill
    VGK · 23/26 · .885
    +0.6
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/71.5+1.5
    Medium1/131.5+0.5
    Low2/320.6-1.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    C. Talbot
    DET · 21/25 · .840
    -0.1
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/71.6-0.4
    Medium1/141.8+0.8
    Low1/370.5-0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    80 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    VGK
    41 shots
    4
    Final
    80 shots
    DET
    39 shots
    3
    VGK attackDET attack
    VGK DET Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, DET right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    M. Marner
    #93 · R · VGK
    1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 19:59 on ice · +2
    S. Edvinsson
    #77 · D · DET
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 24:03 on ice · +1
    R. Andersson
    #4 · D · VGK
    0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 23:28 on ice
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Wed, Mar 4
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 5:31 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a VGK 2.5 – 2.4 DET game with the Golden Knights at 53% win probability, making this as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

    Both teams are treading water. Detroit is -6 in goal differential over its last 10; Vegas is -8. That's form work — teams playing tighter than their talent suggests.

    But talent points clearly to Vegas. The Golden Knights own the underlying play: 54.0% xG at 5v5 versus Detroit's 49.0%, and they drive territorial advantage with 52.0% Corsi. Vegas should dominate possession. Detroit's metrics place it decisively below replacement level for a game it theoretically should push toward.

    Vegas is also running cold — a PDO of 0.983 sits nearly a full percentage point below sustainable rates. That usually means positive regression is coming. Detroit's 0.985 is nearly identical: neither team is getting lucky, which paradoxically benefits the team with better underlying play more than the one running on fumes.

    Vegas's edge softens when you look at goal-scoring patterns. Both teams sit at 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate — complete inefficiency on the chances that matter most. That caps their ceilings and makes the Vegas possession advantage matter less than the model suggests.

    The matchup turns on whether Alex DeBrincat can impose his will. He's carrying Detroit at 0.88 xG/60 with 17G 28A and a 9.0% shooting rate — that elite finish rate is essentially the entire Detroit attack. Marco Kasper (0.81 xG/60, 7G 8A, 6.1% shooting) remains a secondary threat.

    Vegas counters with Brandon Saad (0.91 xG/60, 3G 6A, 4.1% shooting) and Tomas Hertl (0.88 xG/60, 5G 17A, 4.3% shooting) — similar volume but split across two skaters and inferior finish. Hertl's 4.3% shooting sits noticeably low; Saad's 4.1% mirrors that depression. Both are regression candidates.

    Defensively, Vegas has a liability in Rasmus Andersson; Detroit mirrors that vulnerability with Axel Sandin-Pellikka. This game will hinge on which forward group minimizes defensive exposure. Vegas's territorial advantage gives it more control of possession, but Detroit's elite finish provides a live threat on limited chances.

    The 53% call is defensible but not compelling. Take Vegas for process, but expect this to look tighter than the model suggests.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    VGK 53%
    53%
    VGK
    Model favorite
    53%
    47%
    VGK50DET

    VGK by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 2.5–2.4 DET; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK← edge
    edge →DET
    54.0%49.0%
    52.0%49.0%
    2.522.38
    2.112.50
    2.121.73
    2.102.07
    0.9830.985

    VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 0.985) says DET has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    VGK
    3-5-2
    -8 GD · 3d rest
    DET
    4-4-2
    -6 GD · 2d rest
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.985
    DET PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • The Red Wings are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Golden Knights are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    VGK
    Expected in goal
    A. Hill
    3 days rest.773 last start
    Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    DET
    Expected in goal
    C. Talbot
    2 days rest.947 last start
    Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    DET
    Alex DeBrincat17G 28A
    0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh
    Marco Kasper7G 8A
    0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page