The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
A. Stolarz stole this one for Toronto. New Jersey dominated 5v5 play—62% of expected goals (5.93–3.59), 64% of shot attempts (47–27)—yet the Devils' 4-3 shootout victory barely reflects their control. Toronto's goaltender saved 2.93 goals above expected, compressing what should have been a comfortable margin.
Prime chances went to the right team. High-danger opportunities favored New Jersey 12–4, a three-to-one advantage that should have translated to goals. Instead, they underperformed their xG by 1.93 goals, leaving conversions unfinished. That gap nearly cost them the win.
Stolarz was the story. His 0.936 save percentage across 44 saves, including a 92% clip on high-danger attempts, represented the kind of goaltending that steals games. J. Markstrom faced half the volume (24 saves, 0.889 SV%), a byproduct of dominance.
Both teams thrived in transition. New Jersey's pressure showed in the net-crashing department—8 rebound opportunities created, none converted—evidence of relentless offensive pursuit. Toronto mustered 4 rebound chances (1 converted) as New Jersey suffocated play. When Jesper Bratt's backhander from the doorstep ended the shootout, it capped a game decided by New Jersey's control and one goaltender's refusal to quit.