The Ducks won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The 5-1 final masked a close underlying game — expected goals split 4.74–4.75 in the Islanders' favor, a 50-50 verdict the scoreboard completely rejected. V. Husso stole this one.
The Ducks' goaltender stopped 42 of 43 shots (0.977 SV%), posting a +3.75 differential against expected. That single-handedly swallowed the Islanders' xG advantage. New York generated higher-quality chances than their shot total (26 attempts) suggests, but squandered them: they underperformed their 4.75 xG by 3.75 goals.
Frank Vatrano's wrist shot from the wing at 15:49 set the tone early. Anaheim held 38% of shot attempts and scored 3 goals on 24 rush attempts, an unsustainable rate that nonetheless defined the game's outcome. The Ducks' clinical conversion stood in sharp contrast to New York's wastefulness.
D. Rittich saved 21 of 25 shots (0.840 SV%) and outperformed expected by 0.74, yet his teammates failed him. The Islanders created 12 rebound opportunities and converted just one; Anaheim created three and converted one as well. New York had the chances. They simply could not finish.
The gap between quality and results could not be starker. New York deserved better than this scoreline; Husso's heroics and the Ducks' clinical finishing ensured they did not get it.
