The Blues stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.23–4.40 and won anyway.
The Blues stole this one. St. Louis won 3-2 despite ceding 58% of expected goals to Seattle—a margin that should have ended in a Kraken victory.
J. Hofer was the difference. The Blues goaltender stopped 34 of 36 shots (0.944 SV%) and saved 2.40 goals above expected, carrying a St. Louis team that looked outmatched in almost every underlying metric. Seattle generated more shot attempts (36–27), more high-danger chances (7–4), and more expected goals (4.40–3.23). None of it mattered.
St. Louis executed ruthlessly in the spots that counted. The Blues converted 2 of 4 high-danger chances—50%, a rate that punishes opponents—and scored twice on 21 rush attempts. Vince Dunn's snap shot from the slot at 13:34 of the third period proved decisive. B. Schenn registered three assists in limited ice time (14:24), setting the stage for the Blues' clinical finishing.
Seattle, meanwhile, wasted a dominant performance. The Kraken created 5 rebound opportunities and converted just one. They underperformed their xG by 2.40 goals, a shortfall that left them chasing a game they should have controlled. P. Grubauer stopped 24 of 27 shots (0.889 SV%), a respectable performance undermined by the team's failure to convert high-percentage chances.
The gap between play and result was stark: Seattle dominated possession and chance creation, yet walked away with nothing. St. Louis played a simpler game and won. This is what heists look like.
